Weak oil, copper prices also drag Latam FX
POLL-Brazil to ease by additional 50 basis points
Colombia government asks congress to OK up to $17.6 bln debt
By Ankika Biswas
March 20 (Reuters) –Most Latin American currencies fell against a strong dollar on Wednesday as investors keenly awaited policy outcomes from the Federal Reserve and Brazilian central bank, while the Czech National Bank cut its key rate by 50 basis points.
The MSCI index for Latam currencies .MILA00000CUS was flat by 10:20 a.m. ET (1420 GMT) after dropping to a three-week low on Tuesday, with the dollar index =USD climbing to a fresh three-week high.
Investors expect the Fed to maintain the policy rate at 5.00%-5.25%, but officials could likely signal later and fewer cuts than the previous projection of three quarter-point cuts over the course of the year.
“A likely hawkish stance from the FOMC would further delay easing expectations, briefly lifting long-term Treasury yields and pressuring EM currencies. A delayed easing cycle reduces the incentive of EM central banks to cut aggressively to limit FX depreciation,” said Joaquin Kritz Lara, chief economist at Numera Analytics.
Weak commodity prices also contributed to weakness in most of the resource-heavy nations’ currencies.
Top copper producers Chile’s peso CLP=CL dropped 1% and Peru’s sol PEN=PE lost 0.3% owing to lower prices of the red metal. Further, Peru’s copper production slipped 1.2% in January.
Major oil exporters Mexico’s peso MXN=D2 and Colombia’s peso COP= slipped over 0.1% each tracking the decline in the commodity’s prices.
A Reuters poll showed Brazil could ease rates by another 50 basis points later in the day after five consecutive half-percentage point rate cuts since August. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has criticized central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto for hindering economic growth by keeping rates at the current 11.25%.
The Brazilian real BRL= was up 0.2%, bucking the wider weakness among peers.
Mexico and Colombia will also deliver their policy outcomes this week.
Meanwhile, the government of President Gustavo Petro asked Colombia’s congress to allow taking on up to $17.6 billion in debt to finance its development plans.
Elsewhere, Czech National Bank cut its key rate to 5.75%, as expected, maintaining a steady pace of policy easing with the crown still weak and lingering price pressures.
Capital Economics analyst Nicholas Farr noted the post-meeting statement may reiterate easing cycle can be “paused or terminated at any time”, in part to limit pressure on the crown, while Societe Generale’s lead CEEMEA strategist Marek Drimal remained bearish on the currency, the investment bank’s least favorite CEE currency for upcoming months.
The crown EURCZK= was largely flat against the euro.
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:
|
Stock indexes |
Latest |
Daily % change |
|
MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF |
1030.35 |
0.25 |
|
MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS |
2485.98 |
0.05 |
|
Brazil Bovespa .BVSP |
127662.24 |
0.1 |
|
Mexico IPC .MXX |
55449.77 |
-0.18 |
|
Chile IPSA .SPIPSA |
6439.40 |
0.36 |
|
Argentina MerVal .MERV |
0.00 |
0 |
|
Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP |
1308.35 |
0.12 |
|
Currencies |
Latest |
Daily % change |
|
Brazil real BRBY |
5.0175 |
0.24 |
|
Mexico peso MXN=D2 |
16.8287 |
-0.16 |
|
Chile peso CLP=CL |
977.4 |
-1.16 |
|
Colombia peso COP= |
3879.95 |
-0.11 |
|
Peru sol PEN=PE |
3.701 |
-0.33 |
|
Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL |
853.0000 |
0.06 |
|
Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB= |
1010 |
1.49 |
Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne