A top cannabis market researcher expects the global legal cannabis market will reach $58 billion in … [+]
Good news for the global legal cannabis market!
Top cannabis market researcher BDSA forecasts that the worldwide legal industry will hit $58 billion in sales in 2028 and much of that will be fueled by adult sales in the U.S. market.
“U.S. adult-use markets currently represent approximately 56% of total global cannabis sales, and are poised to claim an even larger share of global sales in the coming years as U.S. medical markets contract,” said Roy Bingham, co-founder and CEO of BDSA in a statement. “The cannabis industry is incredibly dynamic, with each market facing unique regulatory changes and industry pressures. Looking ahead to 2028, emerging adult-use states, particularly those on the East Coast and in the Midwest, are expected to contribute the strongest increase to total U.S. and global sales.”
BDSA estimates that sales in the U.S. market are expected to grow to $32.4 billion this year, up from $29.5 billion last year. For 2028, sales in the U.S. market is estimated to soar to $46 billion. The fastest growth is being seen in the emerging adult-use markets, which include Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, New York and Illinois.
The same can’t be said for the most mature adult-use markets. Since late 2021, these markets have experienced some stumbles thanks to price compression and illicit competition. Yet, not all have undergone this downturn. Michigan, for example, has continued to experience growth in its legal sales. However, other mature markets, such as California have stagnated but they’re expected to return to “modest growth” in the coming years.
Another factor that BDSA took into account for their projections are emerging markets that are on the verge of legalizing adult-use. They include Florida and Pennsylvania, both of which are expected to launch adult-use sales in 2025. Florida and Pennsylvania already have strong medical markets and BDSA is estimating strong growth out to 2028.
Like the U.S., the bulk of Canada’s cannabis market is also being driven by adult-use sales, comprising $4.2 billion of the $4.5 billion in sales for 2023.
As for the legal cannabis markets that are not the U.S. or Canada, the projection is small. BDSA is predicting total international cannabis sales to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 24% through 2028, reaching $7 billion.
Headquartered in Louisville, Colorado, BDSA was founded in 2015.