- US top-tier data continues Thursday with January retail sales (ranges to expect)
- Federal Reserve’s Waller will speak on the US dollar on Thursday
- European Central Bank speakers today include big guns Lagarde and Lane
- US administration has cut the blackout period re economic data to just 30 minutes
- Bank of America forecasting a June rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
- China holiday traffic has surged in a positive sign for the economy
- Bank of England’s Megan Greene is speaking on the economy and policy on Thursday
- NZD traders heads up – RBNZ Governor Orr will speak on Friday
- More from Japan Economy Minister Shindo, speaks on the BOJ to decide on monetary policy
- Japan Economy Minister Shindo remarks on GDP – doesn’t mention the recession
- Japan ‘s surprise GDP contraction in Q4 has plunged the country back into recession
- AUD down a few tics after the Australian jobs report, market pricing a sooner RBA rate cut
- Australia January 2024 Unemployment rate 4.1% (expected 4.0%, prior 3.9%)
- Singapore’s central bank says monetary policy is appropriate
- Singapore Q4 2023 GDP +1.2% q/q and +2.2% y/y
- Japan’s GDP deflator (an inflation indicator) for Q4 2023: +3.8% y/y
- RBA Governor Bullock – inflation persistent, especially in services, but its coming down
- RBA Gov Bullock says in good position to get inflation down in a reasonable amount of time
- Thousands of cars (Porsche, Bentley, Audi) imported from China impounded at US ports
- Goldman maintain Brent crude oil range forecast: $70 – $90 despite China oil demand risk
- Deutsche Bank does not expect aggressive BoJ tightening, and also not bullish on yen
- Reports that Buffett has reduced positions in Apple, HP and Paramount Global
- Barclays says Valentine’s Day flower spending down 16% from previous year
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 14 Feb:Mkts rebound from yesterday’s move.USD/rates lower.
- More from Fed’s Barr: January data was stronger for both jobs and inflation
- Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 15 February, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Fed’s Barr says need to continue to see good data before beginning to cut rates
There
were two data releases of focus during the timezone here today.
Firstly we had Q4 GDP data from Japan that came in at a horrible miss
of -0.1% q/q against the +0.4% that was expected. This was the second
consecutive quarter of contraction for the Japanese economy and thus
meets the commonly accepted definition of a recession. The BoJ might
have taken some consolation from a 3.8% y/y deflator (this is an
inflation indicator in GDP data) but otherwise the Bank faces the
conundrum of widespread support to end its negative rate policy while
the economic data is not supportive of this at all (inflation is
falling, the economy in recession to mention two).
After
the GDP data the yen gained some ground, USD/JPY fell from around
150.50 to lows under 150.20 and its near its session low as I post.
From
Australia we then got the most recent jobs market report, for
January. This too, was horrible. The unemployment rate came in higher
than expected at 4.2% (4.1% was expected while the previous month was
3.9%) and at its highest in two years. In total the net number of jobs added across the entire
country in January was 500. Hours worked slumped to their worst since
the previous (non-pandemic related) recession in the 1990s. Pricing
for a 25bp rate cut from the RBA came in to September, from November
previously. AUD/USD lost some ground after the data, from its early
highs just above 0.6500 to just under 0.6480 lows.
USD/JPY fell after the GDP data: