Euro stuck near 1.09, noisy market with unclear trend. Rangebound trading due to potential ECB rate cuts and similar loose policies from Fed by year-end. Proposed range: 1.07 – 1.10. Euro used as “barometer” for broader USD movement.
- The euro did not move much during Thursday’s early hours as we remained near the 1.09 level.
- Though I believe there is still a lot of noise in this market, there isn’t a clear longer-term trend at this moment, and I think that could continue to be an issue in this market.
As you can see, the euro did not move much during Thursday’s early morning hours. And as you can see, there is still a lot of noise in the vicinity of the 1.09 level. Remember that this Friday is the jobs report number, which will undoubtedly have a big impact on this couple. Naturally, the jobs report will have an impact on nearly everything. Given that the ECB will need to lower rates later this year due to the German recession, I believe that this pair will continue to support the idea that the Euro is range bound. Naturally, the Federal Reserve has even said that doing so is more likely than not. At the end of the year, both of these banks will likely have loose monetary policies, and as a result, I believe we will simply settle into a trading range. In that case, the range needs to be defined.
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I think that your floor is at 1.07 levels above, and your ceiling is at 1.10 levels above, as things stand right now. Understand that while there may be sporadic breakouts, as things stand right now, that represents the core of the market and its consolidation in 2024. Since the US dollar is regarded as a safety currency, it is obvious that it can benefit slightly from geopolitical conditions or concerns and maybe Germany can salvage the euro by escaping a recession.
However, given the current state of affairs, it appears that this is the year we will have. Since we are essentially in the middle of things, I use this chart more as a barometer of the US dollar’s movement than as a tool for trading. For instance, a decline in the value of the euro relative to the US dollar usually signals a decline in the value of other significant currencies relative to the dollar. Naturally, you also have the complete opposite.
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