Custody banking leader Bank of New York Mellon is scheduled to announce its earnings on Friday, April 11, 2025. Consensus estimates suggest earnings of approximately $1.49 per share, reflecting an increase of about 16% year-over-year, while revenue is expected to climb roughly 5%. This growth is likely fueled by a rise in assets under custody and administration compared to the prior year, coupled with cost reductions and a strategic shift towards higher-margin operations. The company currently has a market cap of around $53 billion. Its revenue over the past twelve months totaled $18 billion, with a net income of $4.5 billion.
U.S. markets have experienced turbulence in the past week following President Donald Trump’s announcement of extensive tariffs affecting over 100 countries, though the rollout was paused on Thursday. The S&P 500 index dropped approximately 10.5% since last Thursday but rebounded by nearly 9.5% on Friday. Despite this recovery, market sentiment remains shaky as the trade conflict with China intensifies. The U.S. has imposed a 125% tariff on all Chinese imports, while China has retaliated with 84% tariffs on all American goods. This could significantly affect Bank of New York Mellon, as its revenue is tied to the value of assets it manages and holds in custody, which decline with market downturns. BNY shares have fallen by about 2% over the past five trading sessions. For those seeking potential gains with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers a viable alternative—it has outpaced the S&P 500 and delivered returns over 75% since its launch.
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Bank of New York Mellon’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings performance:
- Over the past five years, there have been 20 earnings observations, with 12 positive and 8 negative 1D returns. This equates to a 60% probability of a positive 1D return.
- This likelihood increases to 75% when considering data from just the last three years.
- The median return among the 12 positive cases is 4.1%, while the median for the 8 negative instances is -2.1%.
Further data regarding 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns is detailed in the following table:
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A potentially lower-risk strategy—assuming meaningful correlation—is to analyze short- and medium-term return relationships post-earnings, identify the strongest correlations, and act accordingly. For instance, if the 1D and 5D returns are highly correlated, an investor could take a long position for five days following a positive 1D return. Below is correlation data using both 5-year and more recent 3-year return histories. The term 1D_5D denotes the correlation between 1-day and subsequent 5-day returns.
Discover more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark (including the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000) and delivered robust returns. For a smoother ride compared to owning a single stock like Bank of New York Mellon, check out the High Quality portfolio, which has beaten the S&P and returned over 75% since inception.
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