United States Steel (NYSE:X) is scheduled to announce its earnings on May 1, 2025. The company has a current market capitalization of $9.6 billion. Over the past twelve months, revenue totaled $16 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $155 million in operating profits and net income of $384 million. However, if you are looking for growth with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – having surpassed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
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United States Steel’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There have been 20 earnings data points documented over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred around 40% of the time.
- Nonetheless, this percentage drops to 33% when considering data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 8 positive returns is 3.5%, whereas the median of the 12 negative returns is -2.0%.
Supplementary data for 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized, along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair that demonstrates the highest correlation, and carry out the suitable trade. For instance, if the correlation between 1D and 5D displays the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here are some correlation statistics derived from 5-year and 3-year (more recent) histories. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the ensuing 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can affect post-earnings stock reactions. In fact, the pricing-in might commence prior to the earnings announcements. Here is some historical information on the past post-earnings performance of United States Steel stock in comparison with the stock performance of peers that announced earnings just ahead of United States Steel. For an equitable comparison, peer stock returns also portray post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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