United Airlines is set to report earnings on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. Over the last five years, the stock has declined in 60% of the instances on the day following earnings announcements, with a median loss of 4.4% and a maximum one-day decline reaching 10%. While these figures may seem discouraging, there are several reasons to maintain a positive outlook on UAL currently. These include the ongoing rebound in corporate travel and the stock’s appealing valuation.
UAL has recently shown solid performance, driven by growth in flight capacity and higher passenger revenue per available seat mile. Moreover, declining fuel costs have supported improved profitability. This momentum is expected to extend into the first quarter. For Q1 2025, consensus estimates project earnings of $0.74 per share on revenue of $13.2 billion, a marked improvement from Q1 2024, which reported a loss of $0.15 per share on $12.5 billion in revenue.
The company currently holds a market capitalization of $21 billion. Over the last twelve months, it recorded $57 billion in revenue, $5.2 billion in operating profit, and $3.1 billion in net income. While post-earnings movements will depend on how the results compare with investor expectations, analyzing historical performance can help guide event-driven trading. Investors might consider evaluating the odds and positioning ahead of the report, or examining return correlations to act a day post-announcement. Alternatively, if you’re looking for returns with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers a compelling option — having outperformed the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since launch.
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United Airlines’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key observations regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings stock performance:
- Out of 20 earnings events in the past five years, 8 showed positive and 12 showed negative one-day returns. Thus, the stock posted gains in 40% of the instances.
- This success rate improves to 58% when considering just the past 3 years.
- The median gain among the 8 positives was 6.4%, while the median loss among the 12 negatives stood at -4.4%.
Data for 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) post-earnings returns is also summarized in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (assuming high correlation) is to evaluate the relationship between short- and medium-term returns post earnings, identify the pair with the highest correlation, and trade accordingly. For example, if 1D and 5D are strongly correlated, a trader could go long for 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year histories. Note: 1D_5D denotes correlation between 1-day and 5-day post-earnings returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Peer performance can sometimes influence stock reactions, even ahead of earnings. Below is historical data comparing UAL’s post-earnings stock movement with peers who reported just before UAL. All data reflects one-day (1D) post-earnings performance.
Learn more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark (spanning the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000) to deliver strong returns. Alternatively, for a smoother ride than investing in individual names like United Airlines, the High Quality portfolio has exceeded S&P performance with returns over 91% since inception.
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