Intuitive Surgical is expected to announce its earnings report on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. Over the last five years, ISRG stock has reacted positively to earnings releases 58% of the time, with a median one-day gain of 9% and a maximum gain of 11%. Traders focused on event-driven opportunities can utilize two main strategies: first, leveraging historical probabilities to position ahead of the earnings report; second, assessing the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns post-announcement to guide future trades.
From a fundamentals perspective, ISRG stands to gain from rising global procedure volumes and growing adoption of its latest da Vinci 5 surgical platforms. This optimism is mirrored in consensus forecasts, which call for earnings of $1.73 per share on revenue of $2.19 billion in the upcoming quarter—an improvement from the prior-year quarter’s $1.50 per share on $1.89 billion in revenue.
ISRG currently holds a market capitalization of $174 billion. Over the last twelve months, it posted $8.4 billion in revenue, with strong operating and net income of $2.3 billion. For those seeking less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an attractive alternative, having beaten the S&P 500 with total returns exceeding 91% since inception. Also see – Should You Pick GE Stock Ahead Of Q1?
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Intuitive Surgical’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key takeaways regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings performance:
- Out of 19 earnings reports in the past five years, 11 showed gains while 8 showed declines the next day, equating to a 58% probability of a positive return.
- That figure drops to 50% when only the last three years of data are considered.
- Median return for the 11 positive days = 9.0%, while for the 8 negative days = -2.8%
Further insights on 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) post-earnings returns are summarized in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A less risky, though correlation-dependent, strategy is to evaluate the relationship between short- and medium-term returns after earnings and act based on the strongest pair. For instance, if 1D and 5D returns are highly correlated, a positive 1D return could prompt a “long” position for the next five days. The table below shows correlation data from both the past five and three years. “1D_5D” represents the correlation between 1D and 5D post-earnings returns.
Explore more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark (a blend of the S&P 500, S&P MidCap, and Russell 2000) and delivered strong results for investors. Alternatively, for those seeking gains with smoother performance than an individual stock like Intuitive Surgical, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outpaced the S&P 500 and returned over 91% since inception.
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