Best Buy’s stock (NYSE: BBY) is set to announce its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday, May 29, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.09 per share from $8.82 billion in revenue. This would indicate a 4% year-over-year decrease in earnings and a flat sales growth compared to the prior year’s numbers of $1.13 per share and $8.85 billion in revenue. Historically, BBY stock has risen 58% of the time following earnings announcements, demonstrating a median one-day increase of 3.9% and a maximum recorded increase of 14%.
For the fiscal year 2026, Best Buy has issued comprehensive guidance, forecasting revenue to fall between $41.4 billion and $42.2 billion (in comparison to $41.5 billion in FY 2025), alongside a comparable sales growth of 0% to 2% year over year. Importantly, this guidance does not include the potential effects of tariffs. Looking forward, Best Buy anticipates that consumer behavior will maintain the same resilience and caution displayed in FY 2025, as elevated inflation continues to increase household expenses and encourages a discerning, value-oriented approach to discretionary spending, especially on big-ticket items. The company currently holds a market capitalization of $15 billion. Revenue for the past twelve months stood at $42 billion, and it has been operationally profitable with $1.3 billion in operating profits and net income of $927 million. Also see Buy or Sell Best Buy Stock?
For those engaged in event-driven trading, historical trends may provide an advantage, whether by positioning before earnings or reacting to moves after release. That said, if you’re looking for upside with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and produced returns above 91% since its inception.
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Best Buy’s Historical Probabilities Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points documented over the past five years, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns were recorded approximately 58% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage rises to 64% if we examine data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 11 positive returns = 3.9%, and the median of the 8 negative returns = -5.9%
Additional information for recorded 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns after earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A comparatively lower-risk strategy (though not beneficial if the correlation is weak) is to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identify a pair that has the highest correlation, and implement the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D display the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, peer performance can influence post-earnings stock reactions. In fact, the pricing-in may begin prior to the earnings announcement. Below is some historical data on the previous post-earnings performance of Best Buy stock in comparison with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Best Buy. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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