Barrick Gold stock (NYSE: GOLD) posted strong Q4 2024 and full-year results, fueled by increased production, reduced costs, and improved cash flow. Net earnings for 2024 jumped 69% year-over-year to $2.14 billion. Operating cash flow grew 20% to $4.5 billion, while free cash flow more than doubled to $1.3 billion. Following the results announcement, the stock saw a slight uptick.
How Did Barrick Gold Perform in Q4?
Gold production rose by 15% in Q4, bringing the full-year total to 3.91 million ounces. Copper production saw a 33% increase in Q4, reaching 195,000 tonnes in 2024. The company met its annual production targets, with growth in key operations, particularly in North America and Africa. The gold cost of sales declined 3%, and total cash costs fell 5%, bolstering profit margins. Higher gold and copper prices in 2024 contributed to revenue and margin growth. Copper prices benefited from global supply constraints and rising demand for renewable energy and electrification. The company reported record-high EBITDA and free cash flow, enhancing its financial strength. EBITDA climbed 30% to $5.19 billion, the highest level in over a decade.
For investors seeking a less volatile alternative to individual stocks, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and generated over 91% returns since inception.
What Does This Mean for Barrick Gold Stock?
Over the past four years, GOLD stock has seen significant volatility. The stock delivered returns of -13% in 2021, -6% in 2022, 8% in 2023, and -12% in 2024.
The Trefis High Quality Portfolio, a group of 30 stocks, has shown less volatility while outperforming the S&P 500 over the same period. Why? HQ Portfolio stocks have provided stronger returns with lower risk than the benchmark index, as reflected in the HQ Portfolio performance metrics. With ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty related to interest rate policies and geopolitical tensions, will GOLD stock follow its past trends from 2021, 2023, and 2024 and lag behind the S&P over the next year, or is a strong rally ahead?
Barrick Gold’s robust production growth, cost efficiencies, favorable commodity prices, and disciplined capital allocation drove record results in 2024. While operational risks and geopolitical challenges persist, the company is in a strong position heading into 2025. Barrick forecasts gold production between 3.15 – 3.5 million ounces and expects copper output to increase to 200,000 – 230,000 tonnes, supported by expansion at the Lumwana mine. Additionally, the company plans a 35-day shutdown at the Pueblo Viejo mine in Q1 2025 for upgrades. While our Barrick Gold valuation suggests a 16% upside from current levels, external factors such as gold price movements, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and geopolitical developments will likely be key influences on the stock’s trajectory.
Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates