Newmont (NYSE:NEM)’s stock has experienced quite a bit of volatility this year. It began the year on a weak note, primarily impacted by declining gold prices and concerns regarding costs and production delays. However, things started to improve as gold prices surged—thanks to global uncertainty and increased purchases by central banks. Thus far in 2025, NEM has made a solid recovery, regaining a significant portion of its previous losses. Although it isn’t breaking records, it’s now in a more favorable position than it was at the beginning of the year, with a year-to-date gain of 44%. The movement in Newmont’s stock price aligns with that of its peers, which include Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM) that has risen 58% and Barrick Gold (NYSE: B) that has increased by 20% in the same timeframe.
Newmont Corporation’s stock has seen a recent increase due to a variety of factors. Gold prices have surged nearly 30% year-to-date, recently exceeding $3,500 per ounce. This surge is driven by global economic uncertainties, such as a U.S. trade conflict with China and political tensions surrounding Federal Reserve policy. As a major gold producer, Newmont directly benefits from higher gold prices, which enhance its revenues and profitability. Buy or Sell NEM.
In 2023, Newmont finalized the acquisition of Newcrest Mining, developing an industry-leading portfolio with a long-term gold and copper production profile. The integration of Newcrest is anticipated to provide significant value to shareholders, with estimated pre-tax benefits of $500 million annually by the end of 2025. Furthermore, Newmont has been selling non-core assets, generating substantial proceeds to bolster its primary operations and financial standing. Additionally, for investors seeking potential returns with reduced volatility, the High Quality portfolio has comfortably outperformed the S&P 500, providing over 91% returns since its inception.
Factors Influencing Newmont’s Stock Movements in Recent Months
Part of the increase observed in the last five months can be attributed to strong performance in the first quarter of 2025, propelled by soaring gold prices and strategic asset management. Revenue reached $5.01 billion, exceeding expectations by nearly $440 million. Adjusted EPS was recorded at $1.25, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.71.
Although Newmont has experienced significant revenue growth since 2021, its price-to-sales (PS) multiple has declined, dropping from 3.6x in 2021 to 2.2x in 2024. While the current PS is now 3.2x, there is potential for upside when comparing the current PS to historic levels: 3.6x at the close of 2020 and 2021.
What to Anticipate from Newmont’s Stock
In Q1 2025, Newmont reported impressive financial results, driven by record-setting gold prices and effective portfolio optimization. The company announced adjusted EPS of $1.25, significantly exceeding analyst expectations, and revenue of $5.01 billion, which was supported by an average realized gold price of $2,944 per ounce. While gold production declined by 8% year-over-year to 1.5 million ounces, primarily due to divestitures of non-core assets, the company still achieved strong profitability, reporting $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $1.2 billion in free cash flow. Newmont successfully executed key divestitures—such as the Éléonore and Akyem mines—raising over $2.5 billion in proceeds and reducing its long-term debt by $1 billion. Additionally, it returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. This strong performance reaffirmed confidence in Newmont’s guidance for 2025 and supported the stock’s recent upward trend. We currently estimate Newmont’s valuation to be approximately $60 per share, about 8% above the current market price.
Focusing on valuation in addition to growth is just one of the several strategies we utilize when constructing Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio which, comprising a selection of 30 stocks, has shown a history of consistently outperforming the S&P 500 over the previous 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks delivered superior returns with lower risk compared to the benchmark index; providing a smoother ride, as indicated in the HQ Portfolio performance metrics.