Now, with the election behind us; players’ names being filled in on the lineup cards, i.e., cabinet, bench, and other positions; and special interests presenting their chits; it’s fair game to start tossing around columns like this one. We’re all forming our expectations, are we not?
We’re a long way from being done – still 64 days until the new administration takes over – but far enough into it to start, broad strokes first. These are the five cornerstones upon which we can expect all else to be built – at least for now. The closer we get, the more clearly we’ll see.
1. Let the horses run – kill regulations.
Throughout the three million years of history of humans on this planet, the classic conflict has arisen with every invention or discovery we’ve ever made: How can we use it vs. how should we use it? It’s the never-ending battle between technological development and ethical restraint. As there will be more money to be made on AI than is even conceivable at this point, Trump is being counted on by his megadonors to take his foot off the brakes. It looks like he has every intention of doing so. The same goes for cryptocurrency, where not only are many of President-elect Trump’s big benefactors placing big bets, so his he with his own cryptocurrency he launched early this year. And the timing is very much in favor of this; the global value of crypto has been surging to near record levels with no slowing in sight. It’s at $3.1 trillion as of this writing.
2. More private in public-private.
There has long been a cry for greater partnership between the public and private sectors in such areas as urban planning, research, transportation, and energy. We’re about to see a renewed initiative, this time heavily favoring the private sector players who stand to make trillions this decade in two related areas in particular: deportation and prisons. In a nutshell, it would take an estimated $350 billion to $500 billion to deport the 11 million immigrants Trump wants to deport. That’s neither practical nor even possible under current conditions. But that’s likely to change.
3. Climate change? What climate change?
Denialism will get a big boost over the next four years. So will fossil fuels. But here’s where we’ll see a fair fight, as American science and industry have already made massive investments and inroads on all levels: research, development, and market penetration.
4. Consolidation of wealth
“You’re going to be richer than you ever were.” Remember when Trump made that promise too his clan of already ridiculously wealthy donors? Expect this – replete with tax cuts, spending cutbacks, and attacks on education and social services – to be some of the earliest targets. The one-percenters could grow in numbers and in wealth.
5. The job market will slump.
It has to. The job market can’t keep up the blistering pace of the past four year – the greatest four years in history – because (a) nothing can, and (b) other job creation initiatives like the Relief Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Infrastructure Act don’t stand a chance under Trump. Job creation will fall, unemployment will rise, open jobs will dry up, and there will be a nervous air upon the market.
Much more need be said, but these five form the bedrock of what’s to come.