Ominous trends continue as government culls flocks when Avian Influenza is detected.
A close look at the latest egg related USDA reports gives little hope for any near-term respite from high egg prices. Not only is the number of egg laying hens declining dramatically, but the pace of culling seems to be increasing. Worse, egg laying hens are being killed faster than they are being replaced.
Egg Laying Hen Flock Declined Over 6% In Only 6 Weeks
In the moth of December 2024 13.2 million egg laying hens were culled, representing just under 3.5 percent of the almost 376 million average number of egg laying hens in the U.S. during November 2023. But in the six weeks that followed, another 23.47 million egg laying hens were culled, representing over 6.5% of the U.S. egg laying flock that averaged 372 million birds during December 2024.
Basic supply and demand principles apply here in a very big way. Fewer egg laying hens means fewer eggs produced. Fewer eggs produced means egg prices go higher, which they’ve certainly done. There can be little doubt that elevated egg prices will likely persist for some time as the number of egg laying hens in the U.S. declines with constant government culling of flocks, and those flocks take some time to replace. But because the increasing rate of culling is currently coupled with a decreasing number of both hatched and incubating eggs to replace the lost hens, the future of egg supplies in the U.S. won’t be looking bright any time soon.
An additional review of the Chicken and Eggs Report issued in January 2025 reveals that the number of eggs in incubation for “Egg-Type” production actually declined one percent in December 2024 vs December of the prior year. The number of egg-type pullet chicks actually hatched was also down one percent. These trends are unsustainable. There needs to be an increase in both incubated and hatched eggs in the “egg-type” category, which consists of chicks that will be raised mainly for egg laying. Those chicks take about 18 or 20 weeks to reach egg producing age, which means an approximately 5 month timespan from when the chicks are hatched to when eggs are produced.
Actual egg production of all types will decline about two percent from January 2025 to February 2025 according to the most recent USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report. Fortunately, during the same time period, total egg use is also projected to decline almost two percent, which is good news for egg prices, which should at least stabilize given the apparent balance between current supply and current demand.
For the moment, stable egg prices are better than rising egg prices, but in order for price stability to hold the current trend of killing more hens than are being replaced must end soon, or another round of rising egg prices could take hold. Further, even if the rate of culling abates immediately (not likely), it will be a good six months or more before the egg laying hen flock is replenished adequately enough to allow for egg supplies to catch up to demand, which will finally result in normalized (lower) egg prices for everyone.