Donald Trump’s pledges to impose broad-based tariffs on American imports could take a heavy toll on the U.K.’s exports.
Economists at the University of Sussex’s Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) say the U.K.’s exports could fall by £22 billion ($28 billion), the equivalent of 0.8% of the country’s GDP, if the Trump administration imposes a 20% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China.
Most U.K. industries will face “steep challenges” if Trump goes ahead with his proposed tariffs, said Nicolo Tamberi, a researcher at the University of Sussex.
And he singled out fishing, petroleum and mining as the industries that are likely to suffer the most, each of which could see exports decline by about 20%.
Tamberi also pointed out that the figures could worsen further if America’s trade partners retaliate with tariffs of their own.
The U.K.’s total exports of goods and services was £854.9 billion in the year leading up to August 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Last year, the largest recipient of those exports was the U.S., accounting for 22% of the total, well ahead of Germany’s 7% and Ireland’s 6.6%. The impact of new tariffs could reverberate across the British economy at a time when the Bank of England has projected growth of less than 0.4% a quarter on average over the next few years.
Trump famously declared himself “Tariff Man” during his first term in office, and while campaigning for re-election, he claimed that tariffs could boost growth, protect American jobs and pay for tax cuts.
“Tariffs are the greatest thing ever invented,” the former president declared at a town hall in Michigan in September.
But some Trump advisers have suggested he might be using the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic for bilateral agreements. In 2019, he threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico’s exports if the government didn’t take action to stem the flow of migrants crossing the border.
Earlier this week, British finance minister Rachel Reeves expressed optimism that the tariffs could be avoided.
“President Trump has been president of the United States before and we continue to have a strong and healthy economic relationship, and we as a government will continue to make the case for free trade,” she said.
“I’m confident that those trade flows will continue under the new president,” she added