The forex market was quiet ahead of the US CPI data which will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET.
The JPY is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies. The GBP is the strongest. Looking at the GBPUSD, it fell in the NY afternoon session and in the process fell below the high from December 2023 at 1.2827 and has returned to the old high of the swing area between 1.2788 and 1.2800. The low for the day today has reached 1.2794 within that swing area.
Going into the new trading day, a move below 1.2788 would likely lead to more selling on the disappointment from the failed break higher last week. Be aware.
US stocks were mostly lower with only the Dow 30 moving higher on the day. The broader S&P, Nasdaq and small cap Russell 2000 all fell.
The final numbers showed:
- Dow industrial average up 46.97 points or 0.12% at 38769.67
- S&P index -5.75 points or -0.11% at 5117.1
- Nasdaq index -65.85 points or -0.41% at 16019.26
- Russell 2000 fell -16.83 points or -0.81% at 2065.80
Shares of Meta fell over 4.4% on the back of comments made on CNBC from former Pres. Trump on how the company was the enemy of the people. Nvidia (-2.00%), Super Micro Computers (-5.24%), Amazon (-1.93%), Celcius (-4.42%), AMD (-4.34%), Arm Holding (-3.61%) all had oversized losses.
In the US debt market today Yiields are ending the day higher with the shorter end leading the way. The longer end was little changed. The U.S. Treasury Successfullyauctioned off $56 billion of three-year notes under the WI level at the time of the auction ,I.e. with a negative tail. The snapshot of the yield curve shows:
- 2-year yield 4.538%, +5.2 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.088%, +2.6 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.0 90%, +1.0 basis points
- 30-year yield 4.261% unchanged
Looking at other markets:
- Bitcoin is trading just above the $72,000 level at $72,058.That is up 4.4% on the day. The high price reached $72,910. The low price was at $67,120 in volatile trading.
- Crude oil was lower earlier in the day but is trading up $0.10 or 0.12% at $70.11 currently. At session lows the price was trading at $76.79.
The US CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow.
What are economists expecting?
Core CPI jumped in January and it’s expected to give some of that back in February, though the bias is towards uncertainty. For the numbers excluding food and autos, CPI is expected at:
- +0.3% m/m vs +0.4% prior
- +3.7% y/y vs +3.9% prior
- Estimates range from 3.6% to 3.9%
As for the headline, the consensus is:
- +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% prior
- 3.1% y/y vs +3.1% prior
- Estimates range from 2.9% to 3.2%