While the crypto community has been mostly certain that Bitcoin (BTC) will see a significant rise in price in the leadup to the upcoming halving event as well as in its wake – and has, so far, been proven correct – the coin’s fate later in the year remains uncertain.
On the one hand, the world’s foremost cryptocurrency has, historically, surged tenfold – and sometimes even a hundredfold – after the cyclical supply reduction.
On the other, Bitcoin has never had $57,000 as its halving jump off price, indicating that 2024 could either bring a major disappointment to crypto traders or the coming to fruition of some of the most bullish predictions made so far.
In this climate of mid-term certainty and long-term uncertainty, Finbold decided to ask both main modes of OpenAI’s flagship artificial intelligence (AI) platform – ChatGPT – where Bitcoin might find itself in the relative long term: at the tail end of 2024.
ChatGPT 3.5 and ChatGPT-4 clash on BTC December price
After getting a recap of Bitcoin’s comings and goings in the time following its data breaks off point – January 2022 – ChatGPT 3.5 was quick to estimate that Bitcoin will likely find itself somewhere between $60,000 and $65,000 at the end of December.
While the AI did not elaborate on whether the world’s foremost cryptocurrency would reach a new all-time high this year, its year-end prediction demonstrates that ChatGPT does not consider BTC exiting 2024 above former all-time highs to be likely.
When working to justify its prediction, ChatGPT 3.5, along with mentioning broader factors such as the regulatory environment and vague technological advances, pinpointed the upcoming Bitcoin halving as the major driver for the price of Bitcoin.
On the other hand, if ChatGPT 3.5 proved cautious when it comes to predicting BTC’s price at the end of 2024, ChatGPT-4 was downright bearish. While it offered the same factors when justifying the prediction as its older iteration did, the premium model settled for a price range that would, at its lower end of $55,000, represent almost a 4% decline from the press time price and, at the higher end of $58,000, an upside of less than 2%.
ChatGPT-4 and 3.5 BTC bull case head-to-head
Given the extreme caution it displayed with its general prediction, ChatGPT-4 was also asked to build a strong but plausible bull scenario for Bitcoin throughout 2024.
Despite these parameters – and despite assuming that the halving’s impact will be as strong as it was historically – the AI model elected to stick to a fairly conservative price range between $70,000 and $75,000 for BTC on December 31, 2024.
Perhaps surprisingly, given its higher general prediction, ChatGPT 3.5 estimated the exact same price range as the outcome of its more bullish scenario. The older model, however, also added the possibility of widespread institutional adoption as a likely driving factor for a more significant 2024 rally.
ChatGPT-4 and 3.5 BTC bear case head-to-head
Finally, when asked about a plausible bearish trajectory for Bitcoin in 2024, ChatGPT 3.5 assessed that a renewed regulatory crackdown, a major technological setback, or a broader crisis in the economy – especially now that the SEC approved multiple spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) – could negate the halving-driven momentum and see the coin fall as low as $40,000 by the end of the year.
ChatGPT-4 used the same justification as the older variant of the AI when presenting its own bearish scenario, though it added the danger of excessive profit-taking amidst the current rally as a major risk factor.
Ultimately, the premium model of OpenAI’s platform assessed that should one of the bearish factors have a major impact, Bitcoin might drop as low as $30,000 by December 31, 2024.
Despite their caution and the seeming pessimism across the board, neither of the two AI models considered it likely that Bitcoin might fall to its “crypto winter” lows near $15,000.
BTC price chart
While the end of 2024 is still 10 months away – and predicting the precise value of Bitcoin so far in advance is difficult – it is evident that BTC has been doing well since January 1. Excluding a brief but significant downturn in the first weeks of January, the world’s foremost cryptocurrency is 29.64% in the green year-to-date.
Additionally, while trading close to $51,000 through much of February, Bitcoin suddenly surged late on Monday, February 26, and rose an impressive 11.40% to $56,947 in the 24 hours leading up to the time of publication on February 27.
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