The stock market has been beating back worries about an imminent recession. The Fed still has rate cuts up its sleeve. On the ground, unemployment is still at historic lows. In most but not all sectors, businesses are doing quite well. And, whether for better or worse, home values and prices continue to climb.
In order to discern the strength of state economies, economic data was analyzed, sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on real GDP in chained 2017 dollars, used to provide a true picture of economic growth as opposed to using nominal GDP figures, which don’t account for inflation. Read on to find out the strength of the economy in terms of states by GDP and see which are the fastest growing states in terms of GDP growth over the years.
States by GDP Growth: The Biggest Growth Over 5 Years
Examining the change in quarterly real GDP by state, the state that has the experienced the most significant five-year growth is Idaho. From the first quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2024, Idaho’s real GDP grew by 23.3%, from $79.57 billion to $98.12 billion, respectively (in chained 2017 dollars).
But that’s looking at quarter-to-quarter over five years. What about annual real GDP growth from, say, 2018 to 2023 (since 2024 isn’t over, there’s no annual GDP). By this standard, Idaho is still No. 1, growing 22.2% to No. 2 Florida’s 21.8%, and No. 3 Utah’s 20.4%. Idaho’s real GDP grew from $77.65 billion in 2018 to $94.91 billion in 2023. 2023, from $1.08 trillion to $1.28 trillion. And this is in chained 2017 dollars, which means it accounts for inflation. Regular GDP growth, unadjusted, was 40.5%, from $84.55 billion in 2019 to $118.79 trillion in 2023.
Below is a table of states by GDP ranked by greatest five-year growth, from Q1 2019 to Q1 2024:
The percent change in real GDP from fourth quarter 2023 to first quarter 2024, Idaho’s grew by 5%, which is the highest quarter-over-quarter rate out of all 50 states. What’s most revealing though is that the biggest contributing industry to this 5% growth was real estate and rental and leasing; this industry contributed 0.97 percentage points to that 5%. Initially, much of Idaho’s explosive real estate markets was due to the pandemic-induced remote work policies, with many flocking to the state for relocation. Yet, this boom is still going.
Florida’s 22.8% real GDP growth from Q1 2019 to Q1 2024 is second to only Idaho. Florida is also second to Idaho only in terms of its annual GDP growth over the last five years, 21.8%. Like Idaho, real estate and rental and leasing was the biggest contributing industry, responsible for 0.49 percentage points of Florida’s 3% growth from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024.
Arizona too has put up fantastic numbers. In in terms of real GDP, Arizona’s grew from $366.27 billion in Q1 2019 to $423.94 billion by Q1 2024. That’s growth of 20.2% over five years. In terms of annual real GDP, the five-year growth of 19.6%. Not coincidentally, it is once again the real estate industry that’s responsible for the greatest growth, contributing 0.76 percentage points to 3.2% of growth from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024. The retail trade industry contributed 0.61 percentage points.
Below is a table of states by GDP ranked by greatest five-year growth, annually, from 2018 through 2023: