SpaceX may now be valued at $350 billion, making it the world’s most valuable startup. In a tender offer expected to occur later this month, insiders are looking to receive a dramatically higher valuation than the $210 billion figure reported earlier this year.
As a private company, SpaceX does not disclose its financial details publicly. However, industry analysts have made informed estimates regarding its revenue and earnings growth. For instance, Morgan Stanley’s models indicate that a $350 billion valuation would imply a price-to-sales ratio of 23.6 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 308 for 2024. With SpaceX’s rapid growth trajectory, these ratios are expected to decline significantly, with the price-to-sales ratio projected to drop to 5.2 and the price-to-earnings ratio to 24 by 2030.
The space economy is forecast to grow to $1.8 trillion by 2035, and with another up-round of fundraising, SpaceX is well positioned to capture a significant share of this expansion. The company’s success is driven by its unmatched technology, vertical integration strategy, and diversified revenue streams, most notably through its satellite internet service, Starlink. Still, the company needs to grow into its lofty valuation, which may be more constrained by regulatory issues than the lack of capital.
Starlink’s Explosive Growth
Starlink is a major contributor to SpaceX’s higher valuation. Starlink’s subscriber base has grown to nearly 5 million users across 114 countries, representing a 100% increase in the past year. This rapid expansion is fueled by the service’s ability to provide high-speed internet to remote and underserved areas.
Starlink is projected to generate $6.6 billion in hardware and subscription revenue in 2024 and reach $3.8 billion EBITDA in 2024, according to a May report from Quilty Space. The service’s expansion into enterprise markets, such as aviation and maritime, further diversifies its revenue streams and challenges competing satellite providers. Customers are attracted to Starlink’s lower latency and higher bandwidth capabilities, forcing other satellite operators to innovate or risk obsolescence.
In addition, the FCC recently approved Starlink for direct-to-cell (DTC) operations on 7,500 second-generation satellites, setting the stage for commercial-scale DTC services in collaboration with partners like T-Mobile by early 2025. With an estimated 6,690 active Starlink satellites currently in orbit, SpaceX represents two-thirds of all operational satellites worldwide, a testament to its dominance in the satellite market.
Launch Capabilities and Government Contracts
SpaceX’s launch business is also booming. The company is on track to complete approximately 130 launches in 2024, more than half of all global rocket launches. Its workhorse Falcon 9 rocket, which has completed over 400 successful missions, remains a critical asset. The company’s ability to reduce launch costs by a factor of 10 over the past two decades has made space more accessible and accelerated the deployment of satellites, both for Starlink and SpaceX competitors.
Starship is SpaceX’s two-stage, fully reusable, super heavy-lift launch vehicle. Gwynne Shotwell, president and COO of SpaceX, believes the launch business also has rapid growth ahead. “Ultimately, I think Starship will be the thing that takes us over the top as one of the most valuable companies. We can’t even envision what Starship is going to do to humanity and humans’ lives, and I think that will be the most valuable part of SpaceX,” Shotwell said at the Baron Investment Conference on November 15.
The U.S. government is one of SpaceX’s largest launch customers, with the Defense Department and NASA dependent on the company’s capabilities. Recently, SpaceX secured a $733.5 million contract to execute nine national security missions over the next two years, securing its leadership in the launch market. These missions include deploying missile detection satellites for the Space Development Agency and reconnaissance satellites for the National Reconnaissance Office.
Despite its successes, SpaceX faces significant hurdles as it balances innovation and regulation. SpaceX’s rapid growth has exposed gaps in existing legal frameworks, prompting calls for updated space laws to address the changing environment. “Regulate industries, make them safe, make them right, but you gotta go much faster,” Shotwell said.
The Political Tightrope
Elon Musk’s growing influence in Washington presents opportunities and risks for SpaceX. His close ties to political leaders could help secure favorable contracts and regulatory leniency, potentially fast-tracking SpaceX’s ambitions for Mars colonization and Starlink’s expansion. Such exuberance could be one factor behind the valuation bump. However, Musk’s political influence and estimated 42% ownership of SpaceX subject the company to heightened political scrutiny and the appearance of a conflict of interest, particularly as he navigates his role as a government contractor and a private entrepreneur.
With a robust potential valuation of $350 billion, SpaceX cements its lead in the private space industry. The valuation reflects the power of their vertical integration. The company’s strategy to control the entire supply chain, from rocket production to launch services to satellite operation, gives SpaceX a significant competitive advantage.
The record valuation is not just good news for SpaceX employees and existing investors. It is good news for the private equity industry, plagued by two years of fundraising down-rounds and missed growth forecasts. It will undoubtedly create a positive tone to end the year for private markets.