In a world that’s shifting faster than we can often comprehend, the ability to anticipate the direction of change isn’t just an asset—it’s an essential competitive advantage. Intel, IBM, and Chevron once dominated their industries. Today, they are struggling to remain relevant. Jobs – and professionals — that once seemed secure are now encountering the burgeoning impacts of artificial intelligence and automation. For leaders in every industry, insight into what’s coming next can make the difference between thriving and being blindsided by change.
That’s where adopting the futurist mindset can give you an edge.
Contrary to popular perception, futurists aren’t crystal ball gazers. Yes, some of us, such as futurist Ray Kurzweil, make specific predictions about when the AI-Singularity will occur (2029, the point at which machines will become smarter than humans), but our value is not in our predictive capabilities.
Instead, futurists are methodical, systematic thinkers who approach the future not as a fixed path, but as a set of possibilities and probabilities that can be influenced and even shaped.
“The future is coming at us with mind-boggling speed,” observes Zurich-based futurist Gerd Leonhard. “What I do is not prediction — it’s observation. Just paying attention. I can’t tell you how many of my clients are just not paying attention to what’s happening. They don’t listen to their kids or their wives, never mind the futurists, because they’re so busy with the present.”
Being overwhelmed with the present is all too easy when change is accelerating this rapidly. The good news is that with effort, you can learn to think like a futurist. Here’s how.
1. Expand Your Time Horizon
One of the first shifts to make when thinking like a futurist is to expand your time horizon. Most humans operate on a relatively short timeline—weeks, months, or a year or two ahead. Futurists, on the other hand, look five, ten, or even twenty years into the future. We help our clients ask strategic questions: What are the forces that could shape the world a decade from now? Which of these forces are most likely to impact our industry/organization? Where are the opportunities emerging, and how do we exploit them?
Futurist Peter Schwartz, author of The Art of the Long View, emphasizes looking beyond the immediate future and considering multiple time frames. Schwartz encourages leaders to look at emerging trends and societal issues, weak signals, and scenarios that might seem distant or far-fetched but could have profound impacts if they come to fruition. To adopt Schwartz’s long-view perspective, start by asking yourself: What will my profession/industry look like in 2035? What will customers want from us that today remain unarticulated? What new business models (Airbnb, Uber, SpaceX) might one day come to your industry? What technological shifts are redefining the competitive landscape?
2. Use Scenarios to Explore Alternate Futures
A staple of futurist thinking is scenario planning. This technique was pioneered by futurists such as Herman Kahn and popularized by companies like Royal Dutch Shell, who used it to anticipate the oil crises of the 1970s. Scenarios aren’t predictions; they’re plausible and detailed stories about different ways the future might unfold. The idea is to build a range of possible futures based on variables such as technology, consumer behavior, regulatory shifts, and geopolitical changes.
When using scenario planning, consider factors that are both uncertain and important. For instance, how would a widespread adoption of artificial intelligence impact your business? What would happen if geopolitical tensions between the United States and China escalate in our markets? What would the impact be on our supply chain?
Scenario planning is best done in cross-functional group settings, especially at offsites, free from distraction. I encourage my clients to imagine three to four distinct scenarios for how things will unfold: an optimistic scenario, a pessimistic, all-hell-break-loose scenario, a most likely-to-happen scenario, and a wildcard scenario. Next, I invite participants to think through how you and your organization will navigate each scenario environment should it materialize. Such exercises not only prepare you and your organization for multiple futures but also help in identifying opportunities and risks you may not have considered.
3. Revamp Your Information Diet (and Track Trends)
To think like a futurist, scan and monitor differently. Think about how you “consume” news and reports. Audit your “information diet,” and avoid reading the news for trivia and entertainment. Are you exposing your mind to the best thinkers on how, for example, innovations like AI, the climate crisis, and the rise of authoritarianism are altering the landscape?
Recalibrating your information diet will help you understand the driving forces of change, or what futurists Thomas Koulopoulos and Nathaniel Palmer call “Gigatrends,” important developments that will shape the future for billions of people. Trends are often misunderstood. A trend is not a fad or a blip on the radar; it’s a sustained, underlying force that, over time, will create fundamental change.
There are different types of trends to watch: social, technological, economic, environmental, political, and demographic (often referred to as STEEPD). Each of these trend categories can have multiple drivers and intersections with others.
One technique favored by futurist Amy Webb, author of The Signals are Talking, is trend mapping. Webb’s approach involves categorizing trends as either signals (early-stage indicators), patterns (when signals repeat), or movements (when they reach critical mass). By mapping these trends, you can visualize how they interact and predict where they might lead.
To get started with trend tracking, begin by regularly reading a diverse array of information sources that go beyond your industry’s usual publications. Attend conferences outside your field. Be curious about what’s happening in adjacent industries.
4. Seek Out Weak Signals
Weak signals are often subtle indicators of change—so subtle that they’re easy to overlook. Yet, they can be precursors to major disruptions. As futurist and scenario planning expert Joseph Voros puts it, weak signals are “seeds of the future.”
These can be new technologies that are still in experimental stages, social movements that haven’t hit the mainstream, or unexpected behaviors by new demographic segments. One way to spot weak signals is to look for anomalies—data points or events that don’t fit into the current understanding of your industry or market.
To get better at recognizing weak signals, develop a “peripheral vision” strategy. This involves scanning not just what’s in front of you, but what’s happening at the edges. What innovations are startups in your sector working on? What’s happening in markets that aren’t your primary focus? Keep a log of these signals and review them periodically to see if they’re gaining traction.
5. Cultivate a Cross-Disciplinary Mindset
Futurists rarely work in isolation. They’re skilled at synthesizing insights from multiple disciplines. They draw connections between technology and society, economics and politics, or psychology and design. Alvin Toffler, author of Future Shock, was known for his ability to weave together insights from various fields to present a coherent view of the future.
This cross-disciplinary mindset enables futurists to see patterns and implications that specialists might miss. To cultivate it, expose yourself to new fields of study. Read books and articles from disciplines you’re unfamiliar with. Attend workshops that are outside your usual areas of expertise. Ask, “What might a biologist, an economist, or a technologist see that I don’t?”
6. Challenge Assumptions
Perhaps most importantly, thinking like a futurist means challenging the status quo and questioning long-held assumptions. What are the unspoken assumptions that guide decision-making in your organization? What beliefs are holding you back from seeing new opportunities?
One powerful technique is to use “backcasting.” Instead of starting from the present and projecting forward, imagine it’s ten years from now, and you’ve achieved your most aspirational goals. Then work backward: What had to happen for you to get there? What obstacles did you overcome? What assumptions did you have to discard?
By incorporating these techniques and frameworks into your thinking, you’ll be well on your way to thinking like a futurist. You’ll be prepared not just to anticipate the future, but to shape it. The key is to stay curious, remain vigilant, and never stop questioning. After all, your future view is the future you.