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Robinhood Enters Presidential Election Betting Market

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Good morning,

The viral Stanley tumblers have caused stampedes in retail stores as customers scramble to get the latest color or limited edition. But the company’s history goes back much farther than TikTok, the internet or even modern home electricity.

Founded in 1913, Stanley’s insulated steel containers have been popular across generations—from workers at 20th-century factories to those exploring the outdoors. But until recently, its consumer base was traditionally male. Newly promoted President Matt Navarro joined in 2020, when Stanley began expanding its customer base and color options.

Navarro tells Forbes the company has seen 17 quarters of consecutive record growth. But it’s looking beyond its online virality.

“We are focused on longevity over short-lived hype,” he says. “We’re creating products that have impacts on consumers’ lives.”

FIRST UP

Philadelphia’s district attorney sued billionaire Elon Musk and his super PAC supporting former President Donald Trump’s candidacy Monday over its $1 million daily giveaway to swing state voters, as the cash prizes have come under widespread legal scrutiny. It’s the first known lawsuit over the sweepstakes, after the Justice Department previously sent a letter to the PAC warning it may violate federal law.

A new report looking at top U.S. companies for career advancement found that 60% of the employers studied offered workers fewer opportunities for promotion last year. But at companies leading the third American Opportunity Index, including No. 1 W.W. Grainger, the industrial supply company, followed by Costco Wholesale and Capital One, employees earn more and are more likely to be promoted.

BUSINESS + FINANCE

The assembly workers striking at embattled plane maker Boeing are asking for restoration of the company’s pension plan for the union’s 33,000 members. While the company is adamant it won’t bow to the demand, benefits experts told Forbes pensions are making a quiet comeback. Plus, improving retirement benefits could help Boeing retain talent as the loss of experienced manufacturing workers has played a role in its recent quality issues.

TECH + INNOVATION

Gray Swan AI was founded last September by a trio of computer scientists with a focus on AI safety. The company works to prevent intelligent systems from causing harm by identifying their risks and building tools that help to ensure AI models are deployed safely. It’s gotten early traction, securing partnerships with OpenAI, Anthropic and others. “It’s clear there’s a huge unmet need for practical solutions that help people understand what could go wrong for their systems,” cofounder and CEO Matt Fredrikson told Forbes.

MONEY + POLITICS

Robinhood is now perhaps the most recognizable firm to enter the growing market for election wagering, launching a program Monday that allows users to bet on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. U.S. citizens can buy derivative contracts on the platform, betting on whether Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will prevail on Election Day, with the contracts priced between $0.02 and $0.99 at close to the market-implied percentage odds of victory for each candidate.

Michael Bloomberg recently donated $50 million to fund Harris’ election, as the billionaire known for end-of-cycle cash infusions reportedly faced pressure from fellow Democrats and billionaire Bill Gates, who is also a Harris donor. The former New York City mayor gave $50 million to Future Forward USA Action, the so-called dark money arm of the pro-Harris Future Forward super PAC, the New York Times reported Monday.

In an op-ed in the Washington Post, billionaire Jeff Bezos defended the publication’s decision to not endorse a presidential candidate. The Post’s owner wrote that presidential endorsements “create a perception of bias…of non-independence” and framed the decision as an effort to restore trust in the news media. On Monday, NPR reported that 200,000 people have canceled their subscriptions in the wake of the decision not to endorse a candidate.

TRENDS + EXPLAINERS

Yale University reported a 5.7% return on its endowment in fiscal year 2024, an improvement over the last two years, but trailing the results of six of its Ivy League peers. Like many colleges and universities, Yale’s endowment is heavily invested in private equity, venture capital and real estate, and failed to capture the stellar public market performance in fiscal 2024.

DAILY COVER STORY

How Trump Built A Golf Empire With Secret Financing

TOPLINE Within months of becoming president in 2017, Donald Trump faced questions about the money behind his golf empire.

The Washington Post, New Yorker and New York Times all searched for answers, gawking at the hundreds of millions Trump spent on golf properties without uncovering the source of the funds. The resort investments particularly mystified Trump skeptics, who wondered why he would risk more than $175 million of his own cash on money-losing assets. Politicians in Scotland, home to two Trump golf resorts, called for something known as an Unexplained Wealth Order, intended to expose illicit money, especially in the hands of politicians. Meanwhile, Forbes conducted its own investigation and, after combing through stacks of documents, believes it solved the mystery.

Much of the financing—roughly $250 million—came from members of Trump’s private clubs, who paid initiation deposits that they could theoretically get back if they tired of the place after 30 years. Unlike bank loans, these deposits came with no interest payments and no mortgage filings, keeping the liabilities both cheap and hidden. More money—over $450 million—landed via a series of windfalls, including loan repayments, tax refunds and property refinancings, that attracted little attention but provided tons of cash.

Trump, who failed to get additional financing from his go-to lender, Deutsche Bank, emptied his pockets, deploying almost all of his stockpile as he simultaneously remade the European golf resorts and bankrolled a presidential campaign.

Although his member-financing now looks brilliant, his cash-bet seems reckless, depleting Trump’s liquidity to such an extent that, after the 2016 election, he apparently had to secure an emergency loan, which he also kept under wraps. Trump survived, though, and today his golf-and-club portfolio is the fastest-growing part of his real-estate empire, worth an estimated $1 billion.

WHY IT MATTERS “One of the great mysteries of Donald Trump’s fortune invited years of speculation,” says Forbes senior editor Dan Alexander. “How exactly did Trump finance the buildout of his golf empire—and did whoever provided the money have some sort of hidden leverage over the president? This story provides answers, debunking conspiracies while exposing secrets, such as the fact that Trump seems to have come dangerously close to a cash crisis shortly after winning the 2016 election.”

MORE How Donald Trump Made Billions From Politics

FACTS + COMMENTS

A government watchdog says fraudsters stole millions from the IRS through a hotline set up for tax professionals. The IRS detected and stopped the majority of the bad claims, but not all:

574: The number of improper returns filed by the fraudsters

4,828: The number of tax returns fraudsters tried to fraudulently file, of which the IRS detected and stopped 4,254

More than $47 million: The amount claimed in the fraudulent returns

STRATEGY + SUCCESS

More than a third of adults in the U.S. earn extra income through a side hustle, but balancing it with a full-time job can be tricky. First, check any potential conflicts with your employer, like non-compete clauses, and then consider what you want your side gig to achieve: Is it just extra money, or do you eventually want to transition to entrepreneurship? Lastly, be ruthless with time management and set clear boundaries to avoid burning out.

VIDEO

QUIZ

A comet nicknamed the “Halloween comet” has a small chance of becoming visible for those living in the Northern Hemisphere. But the comet will almost certainly get too close to the sun and fall apart, shedding which component?

A. Head

B. Tail

C. Body

D. Foot

Check your answer.

Thanks for reading! This edition of Forbes Daily was edited by Sarah Whitmire and Chris Dobstaff.

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