The world feels heavy right now after the California wildfires caused so much loss on the heels of Asheville, N.C.’s shocking Hurricane Helene when over 120 residents perished. Survivors of both weather-related disasters are dealing with shock, trauma and a roller coaster of emotions that are shifting by the minute due to “climate grief.” In the past, I have reported on states where work-life balance lags and states where paid leave could be coming soon. Now, with the incidences of weather-related disasters in this country, a new study reveals the at-risk states for natural disasters in 2025.
Top At-Risk States For Natural Disasters
A new study by DJC Law sought to identify the most dangerous U.S. states for natural disasters by analyzing the frequency of wildfires, tornadoes and floods. Data was sourced from governmental reports, including historical records of wildfires, tornado occurrences and flood events to calculate the probability of each disaster type in every state. These probabilities were combined to determine the overall natural disaster risk for each state, with higher probabilities indicating greater vulnerability.
Researchers collected data for this study from governmental sources, covering the following metrics for each state: number of wildfires from 2010 to 2022; number of tornadoes from 2008 to 2023 and number of floods from 2010 to 2025. These probabilities were then used to calculate the likelihood of natural disasters occurring in each state in the coming years.
The following states are ranked in descending order, with higher chance scores indicating a higher risk of experiencing natural disasters. The ranking reflects the combined likelihood of wildfires, tornadoes and floods based on past occurrences and projected probabilities. You can find details of the study here. The top 10 at-risk states, along with the chances of a natural disaster, are as follows.
1. Texas (23.64% chance). This state has the dubious title as the most dangerous state for natural disasters. It has the highest likelihood of catastrophic events occurring in the future (23.64%). It is the most tornado-prone state in the U.S., recording 1,774 tornado incidents between 2008 and 2023. In 2022, wildfires were the most prevalent natural disaster in Texas, where 12,571 cases were reported.
2. California (18.12% chance). The second most natural disaster-prone state is California, where 101,760 wildfires occurred, the highest number recorded by any state between 2010 and 2022. The estimated probability of future natural disasters occurring in California is 18.12%. Similar to Texas, California also faces a 3.65% likelihood of floods in the coming years.
3. Minnesota (10.69% chance). Ranking third in terms of vulnerability to weather-related disasters, Minnesota has a 10.69% likelihood of wildfires, tornadoes or floods occurring in the upcoming years. Between 2010 and 2025, Minnesota had one of the highest levels of flood activity, with 11 major floods recorded and a 5.02% probability of future floods.
4. Mississippi (10.49% chance). Ranking as the fourth most impacted state by natural disasters, Mississippi has a 10.49% probability of weather-related catastrophes occurring in the future. In 2022, the state recorded the highest number of tornadoes, with 184 cases. The likelihood of Mississippi facing tornadoes in the coming years is 7.18%.
5. North Carolina (10.31% chance). Coming in fifth is North Carolina, where people are most likely to experience a natural disaster. It’s the third most wildfire-prone state, after Texas and California, with 51,277 wildfires reported over a 13-year period. Plus, a total of 573 tornadoes occurred in North Carolina between 2008 and 2023, contributing to its position in the ranking.
6. Louisiana (10.27% chance) The sixth-ranking state is Louisiana, which has the highest risk of natural disasters. It has the probability of 4.39% for tornadoes and 4.11% for floods in the future. Over a 16-year period, the state was hit by 924 tornadoes, plus nine major floods between 2010 and 2025.
7. Missouri (10.05% chance). The seventh high-risk state for weather-related disasters is Missouri, which has 937 tornadoes recorded over a 16-year period. The year 2017 saw the highest levels of natural disasters in the state, with 3,398 wildfires and 102 tornadoes recorded.
8. Georgia (9.79% chance). The eighth state most likely to experience a natural disaster in the future is Georgia, which has a 9.79% probability. Similar to California, wildfires are the most common natural disasters in the state. In 2022 alone, Georgia recorded 3,621 wildfire cases and had a 5.82% chance of future wildfire events.
9. North Dakota (9.16% chance). The ninth state with the highest vulnerability to natural disasters is North Dakota, which had 13 recorded floods between 2010 and 2025. The state has the highest probability of experiencing flood events in the coming years at 5.94%. Tornadoes are the second most common natural disaster in the state.
10. Alabama (9.14% chance). Completing the list, Alabama has a 9.14% probability of experiencing weather-related events in the upcoming years. Like Louisiana and Mississippi, tornadoes are the most frequent natural disaster in Alabama, with 1,263 recorded cases over a 16-year period.
I spoke with Dan Christensen, CEO at DJC Law, about the study. “Natural disaster vulnerability patterns across the United States show concerning trends,” he told me. “Risk factors are compounding in certain regions, with Texas exemplifying how multiple disaster types create a cumulative risk of 23.64%. This significantly impacts emergency preparedness, insurance markets and public policy.”
Christensen believes we’re witnessing unprecedented natural disaster frequency and intensity. And he argues that California’s record of over 100,000 wildfire incidents in just over a decade signals the need for restructured response frameworks. He adds that Minnesota’s 5.02% future flood probability shows that traditionally safer regions face new challenges. “Policymakers and residents must prioritize robust disaster preparedness infrastructure, especially in states where multiple disaster types intersect,” he insists.
A Final Wrap On At-Risk States For Natural Disasters
Christensen summarized the findings by pointing out that states like Texas, California and Minnesota are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters and cautions that residents must remain vigilant. He notes that recent events, such as the California wildfires demonstrate how natural disasters can strike unexpectedly, causing significant destruction. “Being proactive in disaster preparedness can significantly reduce the damage caused and help communities recover more quickly,” he emphasizes.
Christensen suggests that it’s essential that those who live in at-risk states for natural disasters have this knowledge. It can help them to prepare or, if necessary, take the steps to protect their lives and property in case of such events.