For four centuries, New York has served as a global hub in the flow of goods, capital, ideas, and people.[1] A thriving fur trade spurred growth in shipping, shipping led to sugar refineries, immigration helped fuel the growth of the garment trade, and so on.
Today, the metropolitan area’s five biggest sectors—financial services, healthcare, professional services, retail, and education—employ more than four million residents and generate over a trillion dollars in annual revenues, more than half of the region’s gross domestic product.[2]
These businesses will continue to be vital to our economy, but new research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) shows that new industries will drive the biggest waves of job-creation, wage increases, living standard improvements, and economic growth in the decades to come.
Our research suggests that 18 “Arenas” – a unique category of industries defined by high growth and dynamism – could raise global output by up to a third in the next 15 years, though they account for 4 percent of output today.[3]
From e-commerce to semiconductors to nuclear fission and more, these arenas could become engines of disruption and play a key role in shaping our global economy by 2040. And with many companies in these arenas operating in and calling New York home, the city is well-placed to strengthen its status as a global leader.
Arenas could transform New York’s economy and quality of life
Some companies in New York are already poised to compete and lead in several arenas. A number of arenas may unlock growth in select leading industries in the region. And some could spur transformative improvements in daily life.
With advantages in scale, talent, and investment, and unsurpassed industry ecosystems, New York is positioned for outsized growth in five arenas:
- E-commerce, a subsector of the region’s retail industry, has expanded quickly since the dawn of the internet but still has plenty of room to grow, as evidenced by the region’s more than 300 e-commerce start-ups.[4] Industry leaders foresee opportunities as developing economies continue to digitize and e-commerce companies expand into new product categories such as personal care and food.
- Digital advertising funds much of the internet and is likely to keep growing as wealth, high-speed internet access, and digital media consumption rise around the world. Digital ads will continue to improve as companies create more places to display digital ads, such as on rideshare apps or in video games.
- Streaming video is poised for growth as more households gain high-speed internet access. Since 2019, the region has attracted more than $2.8 billion in investment in streaming-related industries, second only to Los Angeles. New York is a hub of streaming innovation, with only San Francisco and Los Angeles generating more streaming-related patents from 2015 to 2024.
- Cybersecurity already accounts for 4 percent of New York’s GDP and is growing as attacks become costlier and more frequent. Protecting personal and proprietary data will remain a priority, fueling hiring and investment.
- Breakthrough drugs for obesity and related conditions are driving growth in the region’s pharma industry, which ranks first in the nation in talent. Drugs in this category are likely to continue growing along with the burden of chronic diseases, many linked to obesity, as populations age in developed nations.
Arenas that may unlock growth in other leading New York sectors
Some arenas are likely to drive growth across industries and strengthen sectors where New York already excels or has leadership potential. Advances in analytical and generative AI, for example, is already boosting productivity across industries. Continued cloud adoption could boost margins by up to 6 percentage points in finance and insurance, 9 percentage points in pharmaceuticals, and 5 percent in media and entertainment. Robotics growth could have a significant impact on New York, in part because the region is home to so many retail and consumer goods companies that are now adopting automation technologies.
Arenas that will improve the daily lives of New Yorkers
Advances in some arenas could improve the lives of residents and visitors, and make the region more productive overall. Electric and autonomous vehicles, for example, along with future air mobility, could reduce congestion and cut emissions. Modular construction could help ease New York’s housing shortage and reduce apartment costs, though success will depend on zoning and regulatory shifts.
Working together toward reinvention
As the region’s business and civic leaders coalesce around a subset of arenas where New York is poised to be a winner, equity considerations will be important. The labor market could favor those with better access to technology and education, for example, displacing those with less access. Likewise, advances in obesity and related treatments could raise inequities if their accessibility and affordability are unaddressed—since less-affluent people are both more likely to experience obesity and less likely to be able to afford the necessary treatments. It will take careful planning to prevent advances in the 18 arenas from exacerbating inequalities.
None of these industries will grow by accident. New York’s most capable, imaginative leaders—in industry, academia, government, and civic organizations—must join forces to advance the region’s centuries-long tradition of creative investment in technology, infrastructure, and – most important – its workforce.
We will all need to work together to keep serving as a global hub, raise the standard for urban transformation and reinvent our metropolis once again.
We believe the future remains New York’s to shape.
Maurice Obeid is a senior partner in McKinsey & Company’s New York office. He thanks colleagues for their contributions to this article: Brooke Daniels, a Partner in New York, Kevin Russell, a Senior Fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute; Anthony Shorris, a Partner in New York; and Yael Taqqu, Managing Director of the New York office. The author would like to thank Andrew Shearer and Christina Hong, McKinsey Communications, for their contributions.
—
[1] We define the New York metropolitan statistical area (MSA) as a region with 19.5 million people in New York City and adjacent counties in Long Island, Westchester, Connecticut, and New Jersey. References to New York that follow refer to this broader region.
[2] Sean Ross, “New York’s Economy: The 6 Industries Driving GDP Growth,” Investopedia.com, May 29, 2024.
[3] Chris Bradley, Michael Chui, Kevin Russell, et al., “The next big arenas of competition,” McKinsey.com, October. 23, 2024.
[4] “Retail,” New York City Economic Development Corporation, accessed March 3, 2025