Johnson & Johnson is scheduled to announce its earnings on Tuesday, April 15, 2025. Analysts expect earnings of $2.59 per share on revenue of $21.6 billion for the current year, compared to $2.71 per share on $21.4 billion in revenue last year. Several factors could shape this performance. On the positive side, continued growth in sales of key drugs like Darzalex, along with newer products such as Erleada and Spravato, is anticipated. A notable challenge is the projected decline in Stelara sales due to biosimilar competition. Additionally, the company’s MedTech segment is expected to maintain its momentum, supported by growth in the cardiovascular area, especially following the Shockwave Medical acquisition completed in May of last year.
With a market capitalization of $363 billion, Johnson & Johnson generated $89 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, yielding $22 billion in operating profit and $14 billion in net income. Notably, JNJ stock has gained 5% this year, outperforming the S&P 500, which, despite a 10% rebound following President Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, remains down 7% year-to-date. This outperformance highlights the defensive nature of pharmaceutical stocks during economic uncertainty.
While actual results relative to consensus will be crucial, understanding past patterns could benefit event-driven investors. There are two approaches: examine historical performance to prepare ahead of earnings or analyze correlations between short- and medium-term returns to react post-announcement. For those seeking less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative, with over 91% returns since inception, outperforming the S&P 500.
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Johnson & Johnson’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings performance:
- Over the past five years, 20 earnings announcements yielded 12 positive and 8 negative 1D returns—approximately 60% were positive.
- Looking at the last 3 years, the percentage of positive 1D returns falls to 42%.
- The median of the 12 positive returns is 2.5%, while the 8 negative returns have a median of -1.8%.
Further statistics on 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns are shown in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A lower-risk strategy (assuming high correlation) involves analyzing the relationship between short- and medium-term post-earnings returns. For instance, if 1D and 5D returns are highly correlated, a positive 1D return could suggest a favorable 5D trend. Below is correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year histories. “1D_5D” denotes the correlation between 1-day and 5-day post-earnings returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
At times, the stock may react in anticipation of earnings based on peer performance. Here is historical data showing how Johnson & Johnson stock performed post-earnings compared to peers that reported just before it. Peer returns are also based on one-day (1D) post-earnings performance.
Discover more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark—a mix of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000—delivering robust returns. Alternatively, for smoother returns than holding individual stocks like JNJ, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has topped the S&P 500 with over 91% returns since inception.
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