The labor market is undergoing a seismic shift. By 2030, the U.S. will have more people over 65 than under 18. Birth rates have plummeted, life expectancy has increased, and organizations face a talent crunch they are unprepared to solve.
Bradley Schurman, author of The Super Age: Decoding Our Demographic Destiny, argues that many leaders still have outdated assumptions about retirement, aging, and workforce planning.
“We have not had enough children to replace our populations,” Schurman said. “And because the number of children is smaller than it has ever been, we don’t have a strong pipeline of workers coming into the labor market. At the same time, outdated norms around retirement and ageism are pushing people out of the workforce prematurely.”
A Labor Market Running on Empty
Organizations have relied on steady workforce replenishment for decades. That model is breaking. “In some parts of the United States, one out of three people are already over 65,” Schurman pointed out. “And yet businesses still behave as if they have an endless supply of younger workers. They don’t.”
Vermont is an example. The state’s population of not even 650,000 people is rapidly aging, with over 20% of Vermonters 65 or older and 35% over 54. Since July 1, 2020, and through 2023, Vermont has experienced the following:
- 4,000 fewer children aged 0 to 17, down more than 3%;
- 2,000 more people aged 25 to 39, up less than 2%;
- 6,100 fewer people aged 55 to 64, down more than 6%;
- 10,800 more people aged 65 to 79, up more than 10%;
- 2,600 more people aged 80 and over, up almost 10%.
The fallout can be felt in Vermont across many different verticals and industries.
“Your talent pool dries up almost overnight,” Schurman said. In addition, as he notes, society has built a system that pushes older workers out while making it difficult for younger workers to stay in. That leaves a narrow age band—mostly 30- to 50-year-olds—carrying the weight of the economy. “That’s not sustainable,” remarked Schurman.
“We are already in the Super Age,” he said. “Businesses that don’t adapt will be fighting over an ever-shrinking pool of skilled workers.”
Retirement: A Broken Concept
Raising the retirement age has been debated for years, but Schurman sees it as a flawed solution. “I think it’s like taking a sledgehammer to open a walnut,” he said. “In practice, it gets you to the end result. But in reality, there are a lot of other tools you can use to get there.”
Not everyone ages the same way. People have different health conditions, types of jobs, and stressors. It is bound to affect workers differently.
“Somebody who is 50 years old might present the same as somebody who is 75 years old,” he said. “And people in knowledge jobs age differently than those in manual labor jobs. The bodies of manufacturing, mining, and construction workers wear out faster.”
A more intelligent approach involves flexible work arrangements, phased retirements, and strategic career planning that includes older workers. “We know people who are highly educated are staying in the workforce longer because they want to, not because they need the money,” Schurman said. “Meanwhile, lower-income workers stay longer because they have no choice.”
There is a grim reality for the haves and have-nots of retirement in a super-age society.
Ageism and Blind Spots
Age bias remains a critical issue, one deeply embedded in corporate culture.
“We design work environments, products, and marketing strategies for younger people,” Schurman said. “That’s a major misstep because older consumers and employees are already the largest part of the economy.”
This failure carries real consequences. Older adults control an enormous share of wealth and consumer spending, yet most companies still direct their marketing toward younger audiences. “That’s not just bad ethics, it’s bad business,” remarked Schurman.
There’s also a leadership disconnect when it comes to intergenerational cohorts. “How many boardrooms truly reflect the changing demographics of the workforce?” Schurman asked.
Adapt or Struggle
Companies that ignore demographic shifts will face serious risks. It’s as inevitable as death itself.
“If leadership teams aren’t discussing how to adapt to longer careers and a shrinking workforce, they’re missing a massive business opportunity,” Schurman stated.
Some organizations are already responding. BMW, for example, recognized the demographic issue long ago and redesigned its factories and workforce policies to accommodate older workers. “Now BMW is a model for others to follow,” he pointed out.
Industries such as retail, healthcare, and financial services will need to rethink how they serve an aging population. “Businesses that fail to adapt will lose out on one of the largest economic shifts of our time,” Schurman emphasized.
The takeaway for you as a leader is relatively straightforward. Schurman remains steadfast in his vision of the future.
“We’ve known about these trends for decades,” Schurman said. “The companies that prepare now will define the future. The ones that don’t will struggle to find both the talent and the customers they need to survive.” Remember: birth rates have plummeted and they’re likely never coming back.
Watch the full interview with Bradley Schurman and Dan Pontefract on the Leadership NOW program below, or listen to it on your favorite podcast.