The TJX Companies stock (NYSE: TJX) is set to announce its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, May 21, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of 91 cents per share on revenue of $13 billion. This would indicate a 2% decrease in earnings year-over-year and a 4% increase in sales compared to last year’s figures of 93 cents per share and $12.5 billion in revenue. Historically, TJX stock has risen 70% of the time after earnings announcements, showing a median one-day increase of 3.8% and a maximum observed rise of 7%.
The parent company of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods has undergone substantial growth in recent years, steadily gaining market share from traditional department stores as consumers more and more pursue value-focused shopping experiences. This phenomenon has been further propelled by ongoing inflation, high interest rates, and an uncertain economic outlook. Moreover, the company pointed out that imports from China constitute only a minor segment of its supply chain, possibly reducing specific trade-related risks. Presently, TJX has a market capitalization of around $150 billion. In the last twelve months, it reported $56 billion in revenue, with $6.5 billion in operating income, and $4.9 billion in net earnings.
For event-driven traders, historical trends may provide an advantage, whether by positioning prior to earnings or reacting to post-release price changes. However, if you are looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having surpassed the S&P 500 and achieved returns greater than 91% since its launch. View earnings reaction history of all stocks.
TJX Companies’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
A few insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points available from the last five years, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In total, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 70% of the time.
- Notably, this rate rises to 82% when considering data for the most recent 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 14 positive returns = 3.8%, and the median of the 6 negative returns = -3.8%
Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is compiled along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky approach (though not helpful if the correlation is weak) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the suitable trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D display the highest correlation, a trader could position themselves “long” for the coming 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (recent) history. Please note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.
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