Johnson Controls International (NYSE:JCI) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. In the past five years, JCI has experienced a positive one-day return after earnings releases in 56% of cases. When returns were positive, the median return was 2.2%, with a peak one-day positive return of 11.3%.
For traders focused on specific events, comprehending these historical trends may provide a competitive advantage, although the actual market response will primarily rely on how the results stack up against consensus predictions and market expectations. There are two main methods to utilize this historical information:
- Pre-Earnings Positioning: Assess the historical likelihood of a positive post-earnings return and set a position prior to the earnings announcement.
- Post-Earnings Positioning: Investigate the historical relationship between the immediate market response to earnings and the following medium-term returns, and then position accordingly after the earnings are released.
At present, consensus estimates indicate that JCI’s earnings per share will be $0.79 on revenue of $5.63 billion. This is in comparison to the previous year’s results of $0.78 earnings per share and $6.7 billion in revenue.
From a fundamental point of view, JCI currently has a market capitalization of $59 billion. Its revenue over the last twelve months amounted to $22 billion, and the company showed operational profitability with $2.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.8 billion.
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JCI Stock Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights into one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There have been 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In total, positive 1D returns were noted approximately 56% of the time.
- However, this percentage drops to 50% when we consider data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 10 positive returns is 2.2%, while the median of the 8 negative returns is -5.3%
Further data for the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post-earnings is summarized alongside the statistics in the following table.
JCI Stock Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation of JCI Stock With Peer Earnings?
At times, the performance of peers can impact the post-earnings stock response. In fact, the pricing might start before the earnings are disclosed. Below is some historical information regarding the recent post-earnings performance of Johnson Controls International stock compared to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just prior to Johnson Controls International. For accurate comparison, peer stock returns also denote post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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