Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK), a software firm focused on design and digital creation tools, is set to announce its earnings on Thursday, May 22, 2025. A review of the last five years shows a balanced historical trend: the stock recorded a positive one-day return following earnings announcements in 50% of instances (with a median return of 1.7% and a maximum of 10.3%), while experiencing a negative one-day return in the other 50% (with a median of -6.3% and a maximum of -15.5%). This indicates an equal probability of the stock either increasing or decreasing the day after earnings.
For traders who focus on events, even though the short-term trajectory looks uncertain based on this historical data, recognizing these trends may still provide strategic advantages. The actual market response will significantly depend on how the reported figures align with consensus forecasts and investor expectations. There are two primary strategies to consider:
- Pre-Earnings Positioning: Review the historical probabilities of positive and negative reactions and establish a position before the earnings announcement, recognizing the equal chances.
- Post-Earnings Positioning: Analyze the relationship between the immediate market response to the earnings report and the subsequent medium-term stock performance, and adjust your trades accordingly after the announcement.
Currently, consensus forecasts indicate Autodesk will report revenues of $1.61 billion and earnings per share of $2.15 for the upcoming quarter. This shows an increase compared to the same quarter last year, where the company posted revenues of $1.42 billion and earnings per share of $1.87.
From a fundamental standpoint, Autodesk now holds a market capitalization of $64 billion. Over the past twelve months, the firm generated $6.1 billion in revenue, achieving an operating profit of $1.4 billion and a net income of $1.1 billion. Furthermore, see – Buy or Sell Autodesk Stock.
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Autodesk’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points noted over the past five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns recorded. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 50% of the time.
- Importantly, this percentage rises to 58% if we consider data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 1.7%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -6.3%
Additional data for the observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post-earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A comparatively less risky strategy (although not effective if the correlation is low) is to comprehend the correlation among short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair that exhibits the strongest correlation, and execute the relevant trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader may position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
At times, the performance of peers can impact the stock reaction after earnings. In fact, the price adjustments may start before the earnings are disclosed. Below is some historical information regarding the post-earnings performance of Autodesk stock in comparison to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings immediately prior to Autodesk. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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