Samsara (NYSE:IOT), a cloud-based IoT firm, is set to report its earnings on Thursday, June 5, 2025. For traders driven by events, analyzing how the stock has historically behaved in response to earnings announcements can be quite enlightening. Since 2022, Samsara has recorded a positive one-day return 62% of the time after results are released, with a median increase of 14.7% and a maximum single-day positive return of 27.9%.
While the actual results against consensus will ultimately dictate the outcome, utilizing these historical trends could potentially tilt the odds in your favor. Two primary strategies exist: you can either comprehend the historical probabilities and place your position prior to the earnings release, or analyze the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are published to inform your subsequent actions.
According to current consensus estimates, analysts anticipate earnings of $0.06 per share on revenues of $351 million. This contrasts with earnings of $0.03 per share on revenues of $281 million in the same quarter last year.
From a fundamentals standpoint, Samsara currently possesses a market capitalization of $26 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company has generated $1.2 billion in revenue. However, it recorded an operating loss of $185 million and a net loss of $155 million during that timeframe.
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Samsara’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 13 earnings data points documented over the past five years, with 8 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns recorded. In total, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 62% of the time.
- Interestingly, this percentage rises to 64% when examining data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 8 positive returns is 15%, while the median of the 5 negative returns is -12%.
Further data on the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are compiled along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not effective if the correlation is low) involves examining the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identifying a pair with the highest correlation, and executing the corresponding trade. For instance, if the 1D and 5D show the strongest correlation, a trader may take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, peer performance can affect post-earnings stock reactions. In fact, the pricing may begin prior to the earnings announcement. Below is some historical data on the previous post-earnings performance of Samsara stock compared to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before it. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns are also represented by post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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