Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is set to announce its earnings on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. The company has a current market capitalization of $316 billion, and it generated $47 billion in revenue during the last twelve months. From an operational standpoint, Coca-Cola has been successful, yielding $14 billion in operating profits and $11 billion in net income.
Analysts predict earnings of $0.72 per share with sales of $11.17 billion for the forthcoming report, compared to sales of $11.23 billion and earnings of $0.72 per share for the same quarter the previous year.
Although the movement of the stock after earnings will rely on the results and outlook against market expectations, historical performance analysis can provide insights for event-driven traders. Investors can either:
- Position themselves ahead of the announcement based on historical trends, or
- Initiate a trade the day following the announcement based on the correlation between immediate and medium-term post-earnings returns.
Importantly, Coca-Cola’s stock has shown positive one-day returns after approximately 70% of earnings announcements over the last five years, resulting in a median gain of 1.5% and a maximum one-day increase of 4.7%.
That being said, if you are looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – it has outperformed the S&P 500 and provided returns that exceed 91% since its inception.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Coca-Cola’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There have been 17 recorded earnings data points over the last five years, with 12 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. Overall, positive 1D returns were observed about 71% of the time.
- However, this percentage declines to 64% when considering data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 12 positive returns is 1.5%, while the median of the 5 negative returns is -0.6%.
Further data on 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A comparatively less risky strategy (although not useful if the correlation is weak) is to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the ensuing 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on the 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D denotes the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.
Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you are seeking upside with a more stable experience than an individual stock like Coca-Cola, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its inception.