Commercial and industrial lighting firm Acuity (NYSE:AYI) is anticipated to announce its earnings on Thursday, June 26, 2025. According to consensus forecasts, revenue is projected to rise by 18% year-over-year to $1.15 billion, while earnings are expected to be around $4.39 per share, an increase from $4.15 in the same quarter last year. This growth is likely to be partially fueled by the company’s acquisition of video and control solutions provider QSC, although it may also be somewhat mitigated by uncertainties in the wider market and challenges associated with tariffs on imports into the U.S.
Acuity procures a significant proportion of its lighting products from Asia and Mexico. The company holds a current market capitalization of $8.6 billion. Its revenue for the past twelve months totaled $4.0 billion, and it remained operationally profitable, reporting $546 million in operating profits and a net income of $417 million. That being said, for those seeking upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – having surpassed the S&P 500 and delivering returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
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Acuity’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Below are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns documented. In summary, positive 1D returns were observed roughly 65% of the time.
- Interestingly, this percentage rises to 75% when we evaluate data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 13 positive returns = 4.9%, and the median of the 7 negative returns = -5.8%
Additional information on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is compiled along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (although not helpful if the correlation is weak) is to examine the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair that exhibits the highest correlation, and undertake the suitable trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D display the highest correlation, a trader might choose to go “long” for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here are some correlation statistics based on five-year and three-year (more recent) data. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
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