President Trump’s administration has set its sights on shrinking the federal government’s workforce. It currently stands at approximately 2.3 million civilian employees. On February 26, 2025, Trump signed an Executive Order implementing the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Cost Efficiency Initiative, directing agencies to root out potential fraud, and abuse in matters such as contracts, grants, payments, and travel expenses.
Agencies were told to centralize technological systems to track payments, accompanied by written justifications, with plans for workforce reductions due by March 13, 2025. One striking measure includes a 4-to-1 replacement ratio—replacing every four terminated employees with just one. There’s also a “deferred resignation” program allowing workers to receive pay until September 30, 2025, before exiting. Though initially paused by a federal judge, this program has since moved forward, with around 75,000 workers accepting the offer.
Additionally, the administration has targeted nearly all of the 220,000 probationary employees—about 9% of the workforce—for layoffs, potentially affecting up to 300,000 individuals when combined with buyouts. This could potentially be one of the largest job cuts in recent history.
Navigating a Tougher Job Market
For affected federal workers, reentering the job market could be challenging. Many scientists, administrators, accountants, finance, compliance, legal and park rangers are highly educated and specialized. Unfortunately, they’re entering a white-collar hiring slowdown. Sectors like tech, finance, and consulting have seen significant declines in openings.
It’s taking much longer to find a new job. The market is highly competitive. There are more applicants than job openings. Unemployment benefits generally don’t cover what you used to earn. Many federal roles involve niche skills that may not easily translate to private-sector needs. Older workers who want to walk away from the drama may take early retirements. They could face ageism and the need to learn new tech and AI skills.
The rate for workers earning over $96,000 at its lowest since 2014. Job security is another concern. The quits rate has been dropping. Workers are now less likely to leave their current positions due to the scarcity of new opportunities. The impact of AI and automation is seen as contributing to this “white-collar richsecession“. Specific sectors like tech have experienced significant layoffs.
For the displaced workers, the timing couldn’t be worse. They’re jumping into a white-collar market that’s already skittish. Companies are hoarding cash and leaning harder on automation and AI to avoid hiring.
Take a look at sectors that are still growing like healthcare or skilled trades. This might not be your first choice, but search for a temporary gig job to bridge the gap between finding the role you really desire.
The Fallout
Local economies in areas such as Washington D.C., Virginia, and Maryland that have a large number of federal government workers could face an initial downturn in the economy and job market. When people lose their jobs, they tend to spend less money. Even when others are employed, they see their peers getting packaged out of work, and they worry that this could happen to them too.
Displaced workers could cause a strain on local businesses as consumers will spend less. If ex-federal workers leave the area, property values and tax revenues could fall. The loss of institutional knowledge and potential disruption to services such as delays in veterans’ benefits or Social Security processing could undermine public trust in government efficiency.
Critiques Of DOGE
Some critics say that the aggressive approach to cutting government programs, contracts, and personnel will cause chaos. The tech vibe of moving quickly and breaking things may not apply to a large government bureaucracy.
Once workers are fired or packaged out, there are repercussions. Accomplished professionals in the private sector would likely avoid joining the government, afraid that they’ll be laid off down the road. This could lead to a brain drain. Smart capable professionals will seek out new opportunities elsewhere, even though the job market is challenging. The lack of talent and fewer workers could cause roadblocks in delivering essential services.
In the tech sector, people who work at places such as Google and Meta are sometimes placed on performance improvement plans. This is a procedure to determine if the employee has what it takes to thrive in the organization or maybe it’s time to move on to another venture.
Musk and the DOGE team could pause on pushing people out and embrace having dialogue with their managers and supervisor to make sure that the government isn’t letting go of the best and brightest.