Jabil (NYSE:JBL) is set to announce its Q3 FY’25 results (August fiscal year) on Tuesday, June 17, 2025, prior to the market opening. The company, known for designing and manufacturing electronic circuit board assemblies and systems, is anticipated to report earnings of approximately $2.30 per share according to consensus estimates, marking an increase of around 20% from the previous year, while revenues are projected to be around $7 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year growth. Jabil is experiencing benefits from robust performance in capital equipment, cloud and data center infrastructure, and digital commerce end-markets. Additionally, AI is expected to become a major contributor to the company’s revenue this year, with AI-related revenue projected to reach $7.5 billion for FY 2025, representing a 40% increase. The company currently holds a market capitalization of $20 billion. Over the past twelve months, revenue was recorded at $27 billion, with the company being operationally profitable, yielding $1.3 billion in operating profit and net income of $484 million. For those seeking potential upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and achieving returns over 91% since inception.
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Historical Odds Of Jabil’s Positive Post-Earnings Return
A few insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points documented over the past five years, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns recorded. In summary, positive 1D returns have been observed around 70% of the time.
- Nevertheless, this percentage drops to 58% when analyzing data from the last 3 years instead of the 5.
- The median of the 14 positive returns is 5.7%, while the median of the 6 negative returns is -8.0%
Further details on the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings are summarized alongside the statistics in the table below.
Connection Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively low-risk strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns, identify the pair with the highest correlation, and implement the corresponding trade. For instance, if the 1D and 5D returns exhibit the strongest correlation, a trader might choose to position themselves “long” for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is favorable. Here are correlation insights based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) data. Note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the relation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Is There A Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers may impact post-earnings stock reactions. In fact, the price adjustments could start even before the earnings are disclosed. Below is some historical information on Jabil’s past post-earnings performance in comparison to the stock performance of its peers who reported earnings just prior to Jabil. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) results.
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