The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center today released the following statement from Executive Director Doug Shapiro about an error that affected the freshman enrollment data in its October preliminary fall enrollment report:
“The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center has identified a methodological error affecting its calculation of freshman enrollment in the preliminary enrollment report released in October 2024. That report, called the Stay Informed Report, is based on data provided by 50 percent of higher education institutions. The error in research methodology caused the mislabeling of certain students as dual-enrolled rather than as freshmen, and as a result, the number of freshmen was undercounted, and the number of dual-enrolled was overcounted. The error also affected the Special Analysis of 18-year-old Freshmen report released in November.”
The initially reported 5% drop in freshman enrollment was widely covered in news outlets and cited by numerous commentators over the past few months, including by me in prior posts for Forbes online. It sent shock waves across higher education because college officials had not expected anything like that kind of decrease, and it prompted much speculation about the causes of the drop, including suspicions that that the bungled roll-out of the Free Application For Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) might have played a major role.
The original October analysis by the NSCRC showed a 5% drop in freshmen overall and a 6% drop in 18-year-olds, at the same it reported an overall 3% year-over-year increase in undergraduate students.
Shapiro’s statement continued: “our subsequent research finds freshman enrollment increased this fall. The Research Center will release its Current Term Enrollment Estimates report on January 23 – this report is not based on preliminary data, encompasses nearly all institutions of higher education, and uses different methodologies to determine freshman enrollees.”
NSCRC found the error while it was preparing an enrollment update known as the Current Term Enrollment Estimates report, which provides final enrollment estimates for the fall term. That report is scheduled for release on January 23, 2025. It uses different methodologies to determine freshman enrollees and will show an as-of-yet unquantified higher freshman enrollment than the preliminary Stay Informed report.
According to NSCRC, the error impacted only the enrollment data for freshmen and dual-enrolled students. It did not skew the total number of undergraduate students.
NSCRC said it acknowledged “the importance and significance of its role in providing accurate and reliable research to the higher education community. We deeply regret this error and are conducting a thorough review to understand the root cause and implement measures to prevent such occurrences in the future.”