The October 2024 payrolls were the weakest since December 2020. With just 12,000 net new jobs added during the month, payrolls were virtually at a standstill. While some of the slowing could be due to recent hurricanes, it is unclear how much of an impact those storms had on the data. One thing is clear, however: The labor market has slowed, and there are risks the labor market could slow further. Federal Reserve members know this, and they are likely to cut interest rates at their meetings in November and December 2024.
Weak October Jobs Report
The Employment Situation report, known to economists and analysts as the jobs report, was weak for October 2024. It showed monthly net payroll gains of only 12,000, which were accompanied by very large downward revisions to payrolls of 112,000 for the previous two months. At least the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, although that was only because the labor force participation rate fell in October to the lowest level since June 2024 as people left the labor force.
While some of the weakness in the October jobs report could be due to the aftermath of hurricanes Helene and Milton, it’s not clear how much. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics explicitly noted in the report that “It is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes; however, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events.”
While the October jobs report is likely to stoke recession fears and undermine the claim that the U.S. labor market is solid, other recent data convey solid labor market and growth dynamics.
Initial and continuing jobless claims are very low. Continuing claims are at 1.862 million, which is only around 1.1% of the labor force. Initial jobless claims are also very low, at just 216,000 in the latest weekly report from October 31.
Strong Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data showed that there were more than 7.4 million open jobs in September 2024. While that figure is roughly 4.8 million fewer open jobs than the historic high in March 2022 of 12.2 million, 7.4 million open jobs still represents around 400,000 open positions greater than before the COVID-19 pandemic. With a difference of more than 5.5 million open jobs versus people collecting unemployment, it is difficult to expect very large net payroll losses across multiple months anytime soon.
Signals that the U.S. labor market or economy has slowed are garnering more attention. However, U.S. economic growth dynamics have been solid, with 2024 Q3 gross domestic product up by 2.8%, and the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow from October 31 showing 2024 Q4 GDP is likely to be 2.7%.
Fed Implications Of The October Jobs Report
The October jobs report is likely to light a fire under the Federal Open Market Committee members of the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates at its forthcoming meetings in November and December.
The Fed has a dual mandate to support full employment and keep inflation rates low and stable. Slowing payrolls in the October jobs report convey noteworthy weakness, while the September Personal Consumption Expenditures Index report showed slowing in year-on-year total PCE inflation to just 2.1%, which is very close to the Fed’s 2% target.
Taken together, slowing payrolls and slowing year-on-year consumer inflation rates are likely to give the Fed license to cut interest rates at its November 7 meeting. Moreover, after the weak October payrolls, the Fed would have the justification to cut interest rates by 0.5%, despite the fact that hurricanes could have contributed to payroll weakness.
Additionally, despite the Fed’s focus on balancing inflation and jobs data, the November U.S. presidential election outcome — or uncertainty about that outcome by November 7 — could push FOMC members to cut rates by 0.5%
Market Implications Of The October Jobs Report
Even if hurricanes negatively impacted October payrolls, the jobs report is likely to be a warning signal that the Fed cannot delay interest rate cuts. Moreover, this report is likely to boost the odds of a 0.5% rate cut on November 7, which is likely to weigh on the dollar and bond yields.
However, equities could experience some mixed trading dynamics on the back of a report that is weak enough to give the Fed a reason to cut interest rates more significantly.
What do you think about the October 2024 jobs report?
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