The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany party (AfD) has just fallen short of clinching its second state victory in a month, with the ruling Social Democrats (SPD) scraping by on a few points. A closer look into the exit polls reveals some surprising details of the AfD’s voter base, including strong support from young people and the self-employed.
Earlier in September, the AfD won its first state election in Thuringia and came very close to a second win in Saxony. At the time, many prominent voices in the German business community spoke out against the party, claiming their anti-immigrant rhetoric might deter labor immigration, thereby worsening already dire labor shortages in many areas.
Polling before the election suggested the AfD would repeat their Thuringia success in Brandenburg. In recent weeks, the SPD led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz – who governs Germany as part of a very fragile coalition along with the left-wing Greens and free-market FDP – went into crisis mode to try to divert further far-right gains. Most notably, the government introduced checks on Germany’s borders to reduce irregular migration, and announced further deportations of rejected asylum seekers.
Whether such tactics changed the result or not, the Brandenburg election saw the SPD defy earlier polling, albeit narrowly. The party beat out the AfD by a couple of points. Turnout was high in this election, suggesting fears over the far-right’s rise in previous elections could have prompted more SPD voters out to polling stations.
While Scholz will be breathing some small sigh of relief, a closer look at the voter demographics of the Brandenburg election suggest the SPD were very lucky to win at all. According to poll aggregator Europe Elects the AfD won overall for most demographics except older voters and pensioners – the bloc that appears to have clinched it for the SPD. The AfD, in contrast, won the most votes in all age groups under 59, doing particularly well in the 16-24 age bracket, claiming 32% to the SPD’s 18%. That result in particular is interesting as it challenges long-standing perceptions that older people are more likely to vote for far-right parties.
In fact, it appears the older someone was in Brandenburg, the more likely they were to vote for the SPD. This is perhaps because the SPD – with much more experience in government – are seen as a more stable governing party than the insurgent AfD. This of course has implications for older people more concerned about the regularity of services and welfare provision. A survey of SPD voters – many of whom are in the older age brackets – show they were much more concerned with the social security system and economic development than immigration.
When it comes to socio-economics as well, the results offer some interesting insights. The AfD clinched nearly half of all blue-collar workers, something that fits with perceptions of the average voter for the party. The SPD got the most white-collar voters (30%), but the AfD was a very close second in this demographic (29%), while they beat out the SPD by ten points among self-employed workers.
With nation-wide elections in September 2025, these results will put considerable pressure on Chancellor Scholz to try to win voters away from the AfD in order to maintain his fragile coalition. Latest national polling shows the party trailing the AfD and once long-reigning Christian Democrats. With immigration still a very salient issue in Germany politics, it’s likely Scholz will do more to placate anxieties over irregular migration, while also trying to encourage more high-skilled labor migration to lessen the very serious labor shortages the country is expected to see over the next decade.