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Debunking The “Diploma Divide” Myth

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Black Americans attend different colleges than White Americans, earn less when they graduate, and are far less likely to work in higher-earning “elite” jobs.

In the wake of last month’s election, politicians and pundits were quick to explain away the outcome as the result of a “diploma divide.” People with college degrees voted for Kamala, while people without college degrees overwhelmingly voted for Trump. This marked a realignment of political affiliation. People without degrees used to vote for Democrats. College graduates voted Republican.

In an attention-grabbing column published the day after the election, New York Times columnist David Brooks made the case that college-educated elites established the postindustrial economy (and the social and economic policies to enable it) at the expense of a working class that didn’t graduate from college. The election was their comeuppance. According to Brooks, the election results were rooted in a “crisis of respect.”

As I read his argument, I couldn’t help but feel a pang of guilt. I earned an advanced degree from a selective university and my work is largely insulated from globalization and the decline of manufacturing that has rocked large swaths of our economy. But my resonance with Brooks’ argument soon faded; not because his assertions were wrong – but because of omissions that stood out.

“Elite” describes individuals or groups with power, influence, and wealth. It is often used pejoratively. For Brooks, “elite” and “college graduate” are synonymous. But when it comes to Black Americans, that assertion is not borne out by the data.

Indeed, economists have long established that life chances vary dramatically for people with college degrees and people without them. But that doesn’t mean that a college degree confers elite status, and the data tell a very different story. In fact, substantial variation in outcomes for college graduates exists – and the Horatio Alger myth that education opens doors to the upper echelons of society is far from true.

Not all colleges (or degrees) are created equal

For Black graduates, race weighs heavily on the social and economic outcomes associated with a college degree. Take into account race-based variation in college outcomes, and the notion that college completion is a proxy for elite status starts to unravel.

In reality, Black and white Americans attend very different types of colleges. White college graduates, especially those from more affluent backgrounds, are more likely to have attended selective colleges and universities with immense financial resources. The most selective are filled with students from the most privileged families nationwide and internationally. They attract recruiters from Blue-Chip employers, and graduates enjoy top salaries.

Most Black college graduates earned their degrees from non-selective colleges. These colleges accept most students who apply, are less well-funded, and do not command the same attention from top employers. Even with Affirmative Action, few Black students attended our nation’s most elite institutions. This includes storied Ivy League and selective public institutions backed by our tax dollars. According to an analysis by the Center for Education and Workforce at Georgetown University, Black students were underrepresented at selective public colleges in every state with a sizable Black population.

Majors matter and Black workers’ earnings lag – even for college graduates

Black college graduates are also less likely to major in subjects that lead to elite jobs. A study published for the National Bureau of Economic Research found that the top 10 jobs for Black workers with bachelor’s degrees included social workers, community and social services specialists, and counselors. None of these roles is in the top 10 jobs for identically credentialed white workers. White workers with a bachelor’s degree are more likely to be lawyers, judges, supervisors of sales workers, or chief executives.

Here’s another reason why the elite label doesn’t fit Black college graduates: occupational segregation severely limits their access to elite jobs. In fact, the data suggests that there is zero overlap between the top 10 jobs for Black and white workers with bachelor’s degrees. Black and white workers work in different kinds of jobs. And the data tells us that Black workers with bachelor’s degrees work in a narrower range of jobs than their white peers, in roles that primarily interface with other Black people.

Finally, even when Black college grads work in high-wage jobs, it is well established that they earn less. Only one of the top ten jobs for Black workers with bachelor’s degrees is high-wage. In contrast, all but three of the top ten jobs for White workers are high-wage. An estimated 37% of Black graduates reported a negative net worth ten years after earning a bachelor’s degree.

Consider this: the earnings of Black college graduates look more like white people with some college but no degree. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, white men with some college (or even just a high school diploma) often earn more than Black workers who have earned a bachelor’s degree.

None of this is to suggest that educational attainment wasn’t a factor in the election. It was. And the results reflect the frustration of marginalized Americans with elites. But we must be careful not to conflate the two phenomena. By embracing data, we can dispel the myth that college guarantees a path to the top of the social and economic ladder. While it can be a factor, it certainly does not ensure success, let alone elite status. Both achievements depend on various factors, including race, gender, family background, wealth, alma mater, college major, social network, and sometimes, as is often the case in life, a bit of good fortune.

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