Stephanie Ricci contributed to this story.
In a world defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA), organizations must rethink not just how they operate, but how they hire.
Traditional hiring methods often focus on a rigid assessment of qualifications, leaving little room for insight into how a candidate thinks, adapts, or manages risk.
Brooke Struck, CEO at Converge, has pioneered a novel approach: integrating premortem risk identification exercises into the hiring process to foster a culture that thrives in uncertainty.
What is a Premortem?
“We all know what a post-mortem is: something bad happens, we all gather around a table, and we hang our heads and wring our hands about what went so terribly wrong.” Says Struck. “A premortem is the same idea, except we do it before the project has even begun.”
Flipping this process on its head by drawing on creativity and the power of narrative allows teams to analyze failure before it happens, providing a hypothetical framework to identify warning signs, and build actionable strategies to monitor and mitigate those risks.
“In a premortem, I’d have folks around the table imagine that we’re 18 months down the road, we’ve launched the product into the market—and it’s been a total disaster,” Struck says. “In that imagined scenario, what does the disaster look like? What are you seeing unfold around you?”
By reconstructing the path to failure, teams uncover overlooked risks and, more importantly, the subtle early signs that might indicate trouble ahead.
Why Apply Premortems to Hiring?
Struck took this method out of the boardroom and into the interview process, asking job candidates to come up with their own “apocalypse” scenarios.
“I wanted to get a deeper sense of what risks I might be taking on in hiring various candidates,” he says. The results were revelatory.
“What I learned was enormously useful—it told me what counted as a ‘bad experience’ for candidates. It also tipped me off to very real patterns about how seemingly sensible actions at each step of the way could naturally lead us to situations we all wanted to avoid.”
Even candidates with limited work experience or straight out of university proved adept at recognizing potential pitfalls, adds Struck.
A Two-Way Hiring Process
In most traditional hiring processes, the power dynamic is heavily skewed towards the employer.
“Too many interviews feel like they’re driven entirely by the desire of an organization to ‘size up’ a potential candidate,” Struck observes. “And that’s no accident: the structure of job interviews—with nearly all questions being asked by the potential employer and the answers of the applicant scored against a rubric—naturally gives rise to that feeling.”
A premortem format shifts this dynamic by creating a collaborative dialogue that also provides an opportunity to assess thinking patterns in real time.
“The candidate shares their scenario, and they ask questions. We exchange ideas to piece together the whole narrative of how we end up at the wrong destination. Not once did a candidate not ask me whether I’d seen things like that inside my company,” says Struck.
“We’re basically asking somebody to construct a narrative storyline live in front of us—we get deep insight into their thought processes. Candidates also often referenced past experiences as they were building out the story, predicting how they would act in certain situations,” he says.
Hiring as a Strategic Risk Assessment
For hiring managers, the premortem exercise offers more than just an unconventional interview—it serves as a strategic risk assessment tool.
“For a given candidate, I could ask myself whether the kinds of situations and actions they described in their apocalypse scenarios are actually the kind of things that I observed happening frequently inside my organization,” Struck says.
Candidates whose scenarios highlighted risks common within the company helped expose vulnerabilities in existing systems.
“Seeing the patterns emerge across candidates positioned the firm as a whole to assess the value of different culture-change initiatives, in order to unlock additional new-talent value, reduce turnover, and increase productivity.”
This insight also helped guide hiring decisions beyond a simple “yes” or “no.”
Struck explains, “For candidates where I identified that the risk was high, I could weigh this into the hiring decision: given the kinds of challenges that were probable to crop up with them, was their added value sufficiently high that it was worth hiring them and putting in place a risk monitoring and mitigation plan?”
A Cultural Signal
One unexpected benefit was the overwhelmingly positive feedback from candidates.
“I knew I was on to something when I immediately started getting extremely positive feedback about the interviews—from candidates,” Struck says. “They would thank me for an interview that felt more collaborative than they had ever experienced before, that they didn’t feel they were being judged on a performance, that they could be themselves.”
This process clearly reflected the organization’s culture, demonstrating that the interview was not just a one-sided evaluation, but a mutual opportunity for understanding. By shifting the focus away from superficial judgments, other organizations can replicate this approach by emphasizing the thoughtful assessment of candidates—evaluating their potential effectiveness in the role, compatibility with the team, and alignment with the broader organizational culture. This method could foster a deeper connection between candidates and the company, ensuring that both parties are making informed decisions.
Cultivating a VUCA-Ready Workforce
Beyond hiring, the benefits of this approach extend to fostering a VUCA-ready culture.
“The experience with this kind of open, collaborative identification of risks, followed by regular monitoring and escalation for action, translates into other areas as well,” Struck explains. “What was normalized during the hiring process, when similarly supported in other areas of work, creates a culture where all members of the team are always alert to signals of change, how to share those signals internally, and how to take effective action.”
Perhaps most crucially, it helps teams navigate ambiguity with confidence.
“We don’t need confidence that the ideas are perfect when we have confidence that the navigation tools are robust,” Struck says. “This means that we move on our ideas more quickly, and we adapt more efficiently once we’re underway.”
Practical Implementation Tips
For HR professionals interested in incorporating premortems into their hiring process, here’s a step-by-step guide to get started:
- Identify Key Risks: Before each interview, identify the specific challenges or risks that your organization currently faces to set the context for the premortem discussion.
- Scenario Creation: Ask candidates to envision a potential “failure scenario” in their role, using their knowledge of the industry or specific challenges they might face.
- Collaborative Dialogue: Use the premortem as a collaborative exercise. Instead of merely asking candidates to identify potential pitfalls, engage in a dialogue that helps you better understand their thought process, risk management skills, and adaptability. Encourage them to share past experiences where they successfully mitigated risks or navigated challenging situations.
- Evaluate with Intent: As you assess candidates, consider their ability to identify and manage risk in real-time. Are they proactively thinking ahead to potential issues, and do they demonstrate a strategic mindset?
- Ongoing Monitoring: For those candidates who are hired, develop a strategy to monitor and support their ability to manage risks within the role. This could include regular check-ins or feedback loops where they share observations about their work environment or challenges.
Rethinking Hiring for a Resilient Future
As organizations continue to face unprecedented challenges in the modern business landscape, it’s time to rethink how we hire.
Premortem exercises offer a powerful tool to not only assess candidates’ risk-awareness but also to build teams that are prepared for uncertainty and capable of navigating complex environments. HR professionals and hiring managers are encouraged to experiment with this method in their next hiring cycle—engage candidates in thinking critically about potential failure scenarios, foster collaborative conversations, and assess how their risk-management skills align with your organization’s needs.
By embracing this innovative approach, you can make smarter, more strategic hiring decisions, ensuring that your teams are not only ready for uncertainty but can thrive in it.