Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) is set to publish its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, May 28, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.34 per share on revenue of $1.06 billion. This would indicate a 37% decrease in earnings year-over-year and a 4% increase in sales compared to the previous year’s figures of $2.14 per share and $1.02 billion in revenue. Traditionally, ANF stock has dropped 60% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day decrease of 1.9% and a maximum observed decline of 10%.
Abercrombie recorded a remarkable full-year 2024 net sales of $4.95 billion, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase, and its highest operating margin in over a decade at 15%. This robust performance highlights the company’s operational strength and strong market position. However, growth is expected to slow down in 2025, with net sales projected to increase by only 3%–5% and operating margins expected to slightly decrease to 14%–15%, due to uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs. The company has a current market capitalization of $3.7 billion. Revenue over the past twelve months was $4.9 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $741 million in operating profits and net income of $566 million.
For event-driven traders, analyzing historical patterns may provide an advantage, whether by positioning in advance of earnings or responding to post-release fluctuations. That said, if you are looking for upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns over 91% since its inception.
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ANF’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There have been 20 earnings data points tracked over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns were observed approximately 40% of the time.
- Interestingly, this percentage climbs to 50% if we consider the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 8 positive returns = 2.4%, while the median of the 12 negative returns = -1.9%
Further information on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized in the table below, alongside the statistics.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk approach (though not effective if the correlation is minimal) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identify a pair that shows the highest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader could take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on both a 5-year and a more recent 3-year history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
At times, the performance of peers can impact the post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the price adjustment may begin prior to the earnings announcement. Here is some historical information regarding the past post-earnings performance of Abercrombie & Fitch stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings shortly before Abercrombie & Fitch. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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