Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), a financial technology platform, is set to announce its earnings on Thursday, May 22, 2025. An analysis of the past five years indicates that Intuit’s stock has registered a positive one-day return following its earnings announcements in 69% of instances. These positive returns have had a median of 2.2% and a maximum of 12.6%.
For traders focused on events, these historical trends can provide a possible edge, although the actual market response will mainly depend on how the reported results align with consensus forecasts and market anticipations. Two primary strategies can be employed to potentially utilize this historical data:
- Pre-Earnings Strategy: Comprehend the historical likelihood of a favorable reaction and establish a position prior to the earnings announcement.
- Post-Earnings Strategy: Examine the connection between the immediate market reaction to the earnings and the following medium-term stock performance, and then adjust your trades accordingly after the disclosure.
At present, consensus forecasts suggest that Intuit will report earnings per share of $10.91 on revenues of $7.56 billion for the upcoming quarter. This is in comparison to the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings per share of $9.88 on revenues of $6.74 billion.
From a fundamental viewpoint, Intuit currently holds a market capitalization of $188 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company generated $17 billion in revenue, achieving an operating profit of $4.1 billion and a net income of $3.0 billion. For more information, see – Buy or Sell Intuit Stock.
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Intuit’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 16 earnings data points documented over the past five years, with 11 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns recorded. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 69% of the time.
- However, this percentage drops to 67% if we analyze data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 11 positive returns is 2.2%, while the median of the 5 negative returns is -3.8%.
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not beneficial if the correlation is low) involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identifying a pair with the highest correlation, and executing the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the strongest correlation, a trader might position themselves as “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data derived from 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D pertains to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can impact post-earnings stock reactions. In fact, the pricing may begin before the earnings are disclosed. Here is some historical data on the recent post-earnings performance of Intuit stock in comparison with the stock performance of peers that announced their earnings just before Intuit. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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