Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) is set to announce its earnings on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. Traditionally, HPE stock has reacted positively to earnings announcements. Over the last five years, the stock has recorded a favorable one-day return in 63% of cases following results, with a median increase of 3.4% and a peak single-day rise of 10.7%.
While the actual stock movement will largely depend on how the results measure up against consensus estimates and market expectations, recognizing these historical trends can provide an advantage, particularly for traders focused on events. There are two primary tactics to capitalize on this information: either prepare yourself ahead of the earnings release based on historical probabilities or evaluate the immediate and medium-term relationships after earnings to inform your trading choices.
For the impending report, analysts expect earnings of $0.33 per share on revenues of $7.5 billion. This is compared to the same quarter last year when HPE reported earnings of $0.42 per share on revenues of $7.2 billion. Regarding the company’s fundamentals, HPE currently holds a market capitalization of $23 billion. In the past twelve months, the firm generated $31 billion in revenue, achieving operational profitability with $2.4 billion in operating profits and a net income of $2.8 billion. Therefore, if you’re seeking potential growth with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative — with returns surpassing the S&P 500 and yielding over 91% since its inception. Additionally, see – Buy, Sell, or Hold HIMS Stock?
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Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s Historical Probability of Positive Post-Earnings Returns
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There have been 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In total, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 63% of the time.
- Interestingly, this percentage increases to 64% if we examine data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 12 positive returns is 3.4%, while the median of the 7 negative returns is -5.2%
Further details for the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post-earnings are summarized along with the relevant statistics in the table below.
Correlation Among 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though not useful if the correlation is weak) is to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify the pair with the strongest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D reveal the highest correlation, a trader could position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D pertains to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can impact the stock’s reaction post-earnings. In fact, the adjustments might start before the earnings announcements. Below is historical data comparing the post-earnings performance of Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock with the stock performance of peers that disclosed earnings shortly before Hewlett Packard Enterprise. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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