As Wall Street kicks off the final week of February 2025, investors are bracing for a busy week of data. I watch the news but I pay more attention to how the market reacts to the news. Remember, there are only three ways the market can move: up, down or sideways. A market that can’t fall on bearish news is bullish. The opposite is also true. Moreover, we all make (and or lose) money based on one thing: change in price. If the price moves in our favor (up if we are long and down if we are short) than we make money. If the price moves against us, we lose money. Everything else, including the latest headlines du jour comes second. For me, that’s why the reaction to the news matters more than the news itself. That doesn’t mean the news doesn’t matter, it does. The key is to focus on how the market reacts to the news and adjust accordingly.
First, let’s look at the day-to-day breakdown and some of the big events happening this week:
Monday, February 24: Earnings season keeps rolling with Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Owens Corning (OC), and Zoom Communications (ZM) reporting. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is also on tap—could give us a read on industrial demand. No major economic data today, so the focus is on these corporate updates.
Tuesday, February 25: Big day—Home Depot (HD) reports, offering a window into consumer spending and housing trends. We’ve also got American Tower (AMT), Intuit (INTU), and Workday (WDAY). Plus, February Consumer Confidence drops—last month it hit a low, so any bounce could lift spirits.
Wednesday, February 26: Heavyweight day for tech and retail—Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM), and Snowflake (SNOW) report, which could swing the Nasdaq. Lowe’s (LOW) and TJX (TJX) give us more consumer clues. January New Home Sales data lands too—watch for housing momentum.
Thursday, February 27: GDP second estimate for Q4 hits, alongside durable goods and pending home sales for January. On the earnings front, Dell (DELL), HP (HPQ), and Autodesk (ADSK) report—tech’s still in the spotlight. Royal Bank of Canada (RY) and TD Bank (TD) could signal financial sector health.
Friday, February 28: Is the last trading day in February. We wrap the week with January PCE price index—the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge—plus personal income and spending data. Earnings from Chart Industries (GTLS) and Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) close out a busy earnings week. Markets will be digesting all this ahead of the weekend.
Political News:
Second, let’s step back and look at the different news that we expect to hit the tape this week. First, we have the always fun political news. Investors will want to see the latest developments and what will happen with tariffs. Last month, Canada and Mexico managed to get a one month extension. Investors will want to see if they get another extension or if they can reach a deal to get rid of tariffs. In early February, U.S. stocks sold off after the tariffs were announced. We’ll see what happens in March.
Economic News:
Next up we have a flurry of economic news. As mentioned above, on Tuesday we have the Consumer Confidence Index. That will offer a fresh perspective on household optimism, a critical driver of consumer spending. It is important to note that consumer spending makes up over 75% of the economy. That’s why focusing on the consumer is important to make sense of what the rest of 2025 will look like.
On Wednesday, Nvidia reports earnings and we will get more economic data. Nvidia is considered the big artificial intelligence darling on Wall Street. If it gaps up and rallies, that will bode well for other AI and tech stocks. On the other hand, if it rolls over and falls, that could put pressure on the market.
On the economic front, durable goods orders are going to be released. That could signal whether businesses are ramping up spending or cutting back. Thursday brings international news with preliminary inflation figures from major Eurozone economies: Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, among others. Inflation has been public enemy #1 for many global central banks so that will be important going forward. We also have the second estimate for U.S. GDP.
In the U.S., we get a sneak peak at inflation on Friday when the Personal Consumption Expenditures data is announced. The PCE is one of the important metrics the Federal Reserve looks at each month. We will also get the personal income and spending figures; a hotter-than-expected PCE could cut hopes for near-term rate cuts, while slowing spending might hint at an economic slowdown. Together, these releases will test the narrative of a robust U.S. economy against lingering inflation risks, offering clues on whether stocks can sustain their lofty heights or face a reality check.
What It Means For Investors
Investors will want to see who will win this week, the bulls or the bears. If we get a big up week, that means the bulls win. Conversely, if we roll over and see more selling pressure (a.k.a. distribution) show up, the bears will emerge victorious.
As February draws to a close, this week’s heavy data and earnings will test global markets. Bulls will point to resilient earnings and lower central-bank rates as fuel for further gains; bears will highlight inflation risks and policy uncertainty. By Friday’s close, we’ll have a clearer picture of what the rest of 2025 may look like. As always, it is never a dull moment on Wall Street.
Disclaimer: I have a position in NVDA and it is featured in my FindLeadingStocks.com report.