Key News
Asian equities were mixed overnight as South Korea outperformed, Hong Kong and Mainland China opened higher but faded in afternoon trading, with the latter closing down for the day.
President Biden and President Xi’s meeting at the G20 Summit was a positive catalyst as the two leaders laid the groundwork for further communication in advance of President Trump’s second term. Also lifting sentiment was Friday’s release from the CSRC titled “Guidelines for Supervision of Listed Companies No. 19 – Market Value Management”. The release “promotes listed companies to enhance investment value, enhance investor returns” through dividends, stock buybacks, and mergers and acquisitions.
Exchanges celebrated the ten-year anniversary of Stock Connect as Mainland investors bought a healthy $1.74 billion of Hong Kong stocks and ETFs today. Unfortunately, the strong start faded on continued concerns around Trump’s tariff policies and hawkish cabinet members though the US dollar’s strength on the prospect of higher for longer returns. Investors seem to forget the Art of the Deal, the high turnover of Trump’s first-term cabinet, and China’s willingness to do a deal. I remain highly skeptical that Trump will implement Smoot Hawley 2024, as I’m pretty sure the 1930s aren’t a decade to be replicated.
This week brings another heavy round of Q3 financial results, including Trip.com post US market close today, Weibo, VIPS, and Tongcheng Travel Tuesday, Full Truck and Kuaishou Wednesday, PDD, IQ, KE, Baidu, and Meituan Thursday. Hong Kong held up better than the Mainland, led higher by the most heavily traded stocks by value, including Tencent up +0.8%, Alibaba down -1.03% versus the US ADR down -2.2% on Friday post financial results after the Hong Kong close, Meituan down -0.35%, Xiaomi up +2.86%, and AIA up +0.35%. JD.com rebounded up +3.62%, though Kuaishou fell -2.63%. Hong Kong electric vehicle (EV) stocks had a good day, with reports that the EU and China were making progress on EV tariffs. The Mainland market gapped into the close despite the government telling local investors to buy stocks. National Team ETFs had below-average volumes (again).
The Hang Seng and Hang Seng Tech gained +0.77% and +0.32%, respectively, on volume down -9.27% from Friday, which is 111% of the 1-year average. 288 stocks advanced, while 189 declined. Main Board short turnover decreased by -20.51% from Friday, which is 106% of the 1-year average, as 15% of turnover was short turnover (Hong Kong short turnover includes ETF short volume, which is driven by market makers’ ETF hedging). Value and large capitalization stocks outperformed growth and small capitalization stocks. The top sectors were financials, up +2.30%, technology up +1.56%, and industrials up +1.37%, while healthcare fell -1.55%. The top sub-sectors were banks, transportation, and technical hardware, while pharmaceuticals, media, and consumer durables were the worst. Southbound Stock Connect volumes were almost 1.5X the average as Mainland investors bought $1.74 billion of Hong Kong stocks and ETFs, with Hong Kong Tracker ETF a very large net buy, Meituan, CNOOC, and Alibaba moderate net buys, Tencent, Xiaomi, and SMIC small net buys, and Sunac a small net sell.
Shanghai, Shenzhen, and the STAR Board fell -0.21%, -2.18%, and -1.84%, respectively, on volume down -3.70% from Friday, which is 185% of the 1-year average. 1,160 stocks advanced, while 3,971 declined. Value and large capitalization stocks fell less than growth and small capitalization stocks. The top sectors were energy up +1.19%, utilities up +1.17%, and financials up +0.51%, while communication services fell -3.05%, technology fell -2.86%, and healthcare fell -1.25%. The top sub-sectors were construction, banking, and coals, while education, software, and the internet were the worst. Northbound Stock Connect volumes were high, nearly 2X the average. CNY and the Asia dollar index fell versus the US dollar. Treasury bonds fell. Copper gained while steel fell.
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Last Night’s Performance
Last Night’s Exchange Rates, Prices, & Yields
CNY per USD 7.24 versus 7.23 Friday
CNY per EUR 7.65 versus 7.65 Friday
Yield on 10-Year Government Bond 2.11% versus 2.09% Friday
Yield on 110-Year China Development Bank Bond 2.17% versus 2.16% Friday
Copper Price +0.12%
Steel Pricce -0.46%