Home Forex AUD/USD hovers around 200-DMA post US GDP data, ahead of US PCE

AUD/USD hovers around 200-DMA post US GDP data, ahead of US PCE

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  • AUD/USD marginally dips amid contrasting US reports and steady Australian data.
  • US shows mixed economic signs: Strong GDP growth, stagnant Durable Goods Orders, rising unemployment claims.
  • Investors weigh Fed rate cut odds against US economic trends, focusing on core PCE Index, Pending Home Sales.

The AUD/USD is virtually unchanged during the North American session, although the US economy grew at a faster pace than expected. Nevertheless, other data suggest the labor market is cooling while demand for durable goods is taking its toll. Therefore, the pair exchanges hands at 0.6574, down 0.05%, just below the 200-day moving average (DMA).

Aussie Dollar at the brisk of sliding below key support, traders eye US PCE

The US economy last quarter of 2023 grew by 3.3% QoQ, below Q3’s 4.9% and exceeded forecasts of 2%, revealed the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). At the same time, the US Department of Commerce revealed that Durable Goods Orders came flat at 0%, down from 5.5% increase in November, overshadowing a goodish US GDP report. Meanwhile, labor market data revealed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that unemployment claims for the week ending January 20, jumped from 189K to 214K, above estimates of 200K.

Given the backdrop, the Greenback (USD) gained some traction lately. Following the data slipped towards Thursday’s daily low of 103.12 via the US Dollar Index (DXY), though it climbed to current levels at 103.58, up 0.32%.

Despite that, investors are still expecting the Federal Reserve will cut rates by more than 140 basis points to 4.04% by the end of the year. Nevertheless, for the Fed’s March meeting, traders trimmed the odds from 53.6% a week ago to 46.2%.

The lack of economic data to be released in the Aussie calendar lets traders adrift to the dynamics surrounding the buck. On the US front, the docket will feature the  Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, along with Pending Home Sales for December.

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair is directionless, at around the 200-DMA, waiting for a solid catalyst that could either resume the downtrend or trigger a rally. On the bearish side, the first support is the January 18 low of 0.6525, followed by the 0.6500 figure. A further downside is seen at the November 10 low of 0.6338. Conversely, if buyers lift prices above 0.6600, that could exacerbate an advance to the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 0.6650, followed by 0.6700.


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