Italy saw an increase in asylum requests in 2023, according to the OECD. The figures confirm previous observations of an upswing of irregular migration to Italy in 2023, which has since returned to something closer to normal. At the same time, the Italian government is pressing ahead with its controversial Albania offshoring scheme, despite significant legal challenges.
Around 130,000 asylum requests were filed in Italy in 2023, 69% higher than in 2022, according to the OECD which every year releases a report on global migration trends. This confirms previous reports of an increase in irregular migration to Italy, particularly people travelling on small boats across the Mediterranean from North Africa.
The causes for the upswing in 2023 are not exactly clear, with increasing conflict and instability, as well as continued economic hardships worsened by global turbulence such as the Covid pandemic and war in Ukraine no doubt playing a role. What is clear, however, is that the ‘surge’ has since broken, and numbers for 2024 are on track to be back to normal, with sea crossings to Italy falling by 62.3% in the first seven months of 2024, according to figures from the Italian Ministry of the Interior.
Once again, the causes for the decline in 2024 are not exactly clear. Irregular migration tends to ebb and flow as different pressures emerge and subside. Some amount of the decline in 2024 will be down to those pressures going down in some parts of the world. At the same time, the Italian government has been very eager to claim their tougher policies introduced in recent years – namely continuing to fund Libyan authorities’ coastal apparatus and restricting the ability of charity rescue NGOs to patrol the Mediterranean looking for people in distress – are behind the decline.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni recently hosted the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for talks on migration, and she touted the large decrease in arrivals in 2024 to a reportedly receptive guest.
While the Italian efforts will no doubt have made some contribution to the decline in numbers, however, it’s also worth noting that amid the drop in numbers to Italy itself, there have been rises in other countries’ territories, notably Spain and Greece. This suggests that people who otherwise may have tried to reach Italy have been deterred, though not so much that they stay in their home countries. Instead, the stricter policy along some routes has simply shifted people to others, what migration policy experts call the ‘balloon effect.’
Also notable in the OECD figures for 2023 are the increases in asylum applications of people from Egypt and Bangladesh. These two nationalities have been highly represented among people taken to Albania under Italy’s controversial multi-million dollar scheme to offshore the work of asylum processing outside of the EU.
Judges in Italy have repeatedly ordered people from Egypt and Bangladesh moved back to the Italian mainland, essentially rejecting the Italian government’s argument that those countries are safe enough to return people back to. The Italian government is pressing on however, and with the scheme costing around $720 million over five years, other EU countries are watching closely to see if they can manage to make it work.