The spread of AI could ultimately displace between 1 million and 3 million jobs in the U.K., according to estimates from the Tony Blair Institute (TBI).
The former prime minister’s think tank says the U.K.’s job losses will peak at around 60,000 to 275,000 jobs a year, which it describes as “relatively modest” in comparison to the country’s average of 450,000 jobs lost per year over the past decade.
The institute says AI will likely offset some of the job losses by creating entirely new roles, which can pull some displaced workers back into the workforce. And their “best guess” is that AI’s peak impact on unemployment is likely to be in the low hundreds of thousands.
AI’s impact on Britain’s economy could include raising GDP by up to 1% over the next five years, and the level of unemployment could increase by up to 180,000 by 2030. But the range of possibilities becomes much broader by 2035.
For context, it’s worth noting that the Office for National Statistics has indicated that just under 33.4 million people were employed in the U.K. as of August this year. And roughly 1.4 million people above the age of 16 were unemployed.
Through its report entitled “The Impact of AI on the Labour Market,” TBI is urging Britain’s policymakers to prepare now to ensure the nation’s labor force is equipped to ride the coming wave and benefit from AI.
The institute has concluded that workers who perform routine cognitive tasks are the ones likely to be more exposed to AI’s disruptive effects. Specifically, the report pointed to administrative and secretarial roles as being most at risk, followed by sales and customer service, and then banking and finance.
Occupations and industries involving more complex manual work, such as the skilled trades or construction, are least likely to be impacted.
Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a report that concluded nearly 40% of jobs across the world could be affected by AI. And advanced economies, such as the U.S. and the U.K., face greater risks from AI due to its likely impact on high-skilled jobs.
The IMF estimated that roughly 60% of jobs could be impacted by AI in advanced economies, and about half of those jobs may be negatively affected.