This year started with a major controversy surrounding quantum computing (QC). NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s statement at CES 2025 that “very useful” QC is still 20 years away caused a crash in quantum stocks and triggered a worldwide debate on the prospects of this promising field. Based on the concept of singularity and the very recent empirical evidence thereof—namely, ChatGPT taking the world by surprise in 2022—I stated, “Quantum Computing Could Achieve Singularity In 2025.” Some people disagreed, others pondered the claim with an open mind saying, “it’s not impossible.” Based on Microsoft’s unveiling of Majorana 1, the quantum singularity is closer than ever.
Topological Edge: A New Foundation for Quantum Scaling
Microsoft’s unveiling of its Majorana 1 quantum processor represents a paradigm shift in computing—one rooted in a century-old theoretical puzzle. By engineering a new state of matter called a topological superconductor, Microsoft has created qubits that leverage Majorana zero modes (MZMs), quasiparticles theorized in 1937 but never reliably harnessed until now. Unlike traditional qubits, which are prone to environmental interference, these topological qubits encode information in the parity of electrons split across nanowires, making them inherently resistant to noise. This hardware-level error protection—validated in peer-reviewed research published in Nature—could reduce the overhead of quantum error correction by tenfold, a critical leap toward practicality.
The implications are stark: while competitors like IBM and Google focus on scaling fragile superconducting or trapped-ion qubits, Microsoft’s architecture promises a path to one million qubits on a single chip the size of a desktop CPU. As Chetan Nayak, Microsoft’s quantum hardware lead, explains, this density avoids the “airplane hangar” footprint required by other approaches, enabling integration into Azure data centers.
Building Qubits Atom by Atom: The Subatomic Fabrication Frontier
At the core of Majorana 1 lies a bespoke materials stack of indium arsenide and aluminum, fabricated atom by atom to form “topoconductor” nanowires. When cooled near absolute zero and exposed to magnetic fields, these wires generate MZMs at their endpoints—a feat Microsoft compares to “inventing the transistor for the quantum age.” The challenge? Measuring quantum states hidden by design.
Microsoft’s solution employs quantum dots and microwave reflectometry to detect single-electron differences in nanowires—akin to discerning a single grain of sand in a billion. This digital control system replaces finicky analog adjustments with simple voltage pulses, enabling error correction via measurements rather than complex rotations. Early results show 99% measurement fidelity, with coherence times exceeding 1 millisecond—orders of magnitude longer than early superconducting qubits.
Critically, this progress has won over skeptics. DARPA, after rigorous review, selected Microsoft for its Underexplored Systems for Utility-Scale Quantum Computing (US2QC) program, backing plans to demonstrate a fault-tolerant prototype within five years.
Beyond Hype: The Road to Industrial Impact
Microsoft’s roadmap now shifts from physics validation to systems engineering. A 4×2 tetron array will soon test entanglement and error detection, scaling toward a million-qubit system optimized for logistics, chemistry, and materials science. Potential applications—like designing catalysts to break down microplastics or enzymes to boost crop yields—align with sustainability goals but require unprecedented computational muscle.
Yet challenges persist. Fabricating topoconductors at scale remains arduous, and Microsoft has opted to manufacture chips in-house rather than through Azure partners. Rivals like IQM and Oxford Ionics aim for 200-qubit systems by 2027, but even their leaders concede that million-qubit machines remain a distant frontier.
For investors, the lesson is clear: QC is transitioning from lab curiosity to engineered solution. As Microsoft’s 19-year bet on topology nears fruition, the race isn’t just about qubit counts—it’s about who can turn quantum mechanics into a tool as reliable as the transistor.
Singularities Thrive on Skepticism
Skepticism around QC’s timeline isn’t irrational—it’s rooted in valid critiques of error rates, scalability, and the “technical debt” of existing architectures. Yet history shows paradigm shifts often emerge because skeptics force innovators to confront hard limits. Microsoft’s topological approach—backed by DARPA’s validation—directly addresses these critiques by redefining qubit physics rather than iterating on flawed models. The same doubts that stalled superconducting qubits in the 2010s now push engineers to refine nanowire fabrication and error detection. This tension—between caution and ambition—mirrors the skepticism that once surrounded transistors and neural networks. Today, it’s the crucible forging a singularity: a future where quantum practicality arrives not despite skepticism, but because of it.