Ahead of its earnings report on Thursday, May 8, 2025, historical data suggests a potential upward trend for D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS) stock following the announcement. Examining the past three years reveals that the stock has experienced a positive one-day return in 64% of instances. These positive returns have had a median of 5.3% and a maximum of 111% (recorded in May 2023).
For investors considering trading around this event, two primary strategies emerge. The first involves analyzing these historical probabilities and positioning before the earnings are released. The second entails observing the relationship between the immediate and medium-term stock performance after the earnings to guide subsequent investment decisions.
It’s important to consider QBTS’ fundamental financial standing. The company currently has a market capitalization of $1.8 billion. Its trailing twelve-month revenue stands at $8.8 million, accompanied by operating losses of $-77 million and a net loss of $-144 million. Notably, despite these financial metrics, the quantum computing sector, including QBTS, has seen increased investor interest owing to its future prospects.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
QBTS Stock Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 11 earnings data points recorded over the last three years, with 7 positive and 4 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 64% of the time.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 5.3%, and median of the 4 negative returns = -2.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
QBTS Stock Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like D-Wave Quantum, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.