Conjecture about when U.S. oil production may plateau is not new. Many in the industry, including several energy bosses, reckon the country’s output — currently north of 13.5 million and the highest in the world — will continue to rise at least until 2027.
In March, at CERAWeek 2025, a major energy event organized by S&P Global, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance and Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub joined many of their industry peers in predicting a U.S. crude production plateau sometime between 2027 and 2030.
Now the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy, has also predicted that a 2027 production plateau sounds fairly plausible.
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2025 published on Wednesday, the EIA said U.S. production will rise to 14 million barrels per day in 2027, and may likely stabilize at or near that level for a few years up until the early 2030s, before a gradual decline comes into view.
After that, a further decline may happen at a much faster rate through to the 2050s as the uptick from the U.S. shale bonanza starts to ebb away. Shale production itself is also expected to peak in 2027.
It draws the contribution of U.S. shale industry into sharp focus. In 2024, U.S. output grew on an annualized basis by 2%, or by 270,000 bpd, to average around 13.2 million bpd. Nearly all the production growth came from the Permian region, which accounted for nearly half of total U.S. crude oil production, according to the EIA.
Shale production is expected hit a record of 10 million bpd by 2027, up from 9.7 million bpd expected in 2025. Thereafter, it may well be on a sliding track down to 9.33 million bpd by 2050.
Market Scenarios
Commenting on the EIA’s projections, the DoE criticized the previous Biden administration and flagged President Donald Trump’s pro oil credentials since he took office in January.
“The report reflects the disastrous path for American energy production under the Biden administration — a path that was soundly rejected by the American people last November.
“By unleashing energy that is affordable, reliable, and secure, this administration is ensuring America’s future is marked by energy growth and abundance — not scarcity.”
As things stand, the U.S. remains the world’s leading oil producer, a crown it bagged toward the end of 2023 and continues to hold. It may retain that title till at least the turn of the decade, if not longer.
However, Saudi Arabia is sitting on spare capacity of 3 million bpd and could be in a position to challenge the U.S. if the latter’s decline rate is deeper than forecast. Because despite the U.S. shale bonanza, the Saudis remain the world’s buffer producers, i.e., they hold a large amount of spare capacity that can be used to absorb supply shocks and stabilize oil prices.
Overall, a market adjustment may be required by importers of light sweet crude, especially out in Asia, from the Indian subcontinent to the East. Many are currently enjoying the position of being able to import readily available and competitively priced U.S. light sweet crude grades.
But there is belief in the wider industry that U.S. output decline is likely to be gradual and may be mitigated through technology.
For instance, Lance of ConocoPhillips predicted at CERAWeek that the U.S. output volumes will see a slow decline beyond 2030 and technology can help with resource maximization.
“Of course, market share for OPEC+ will start rising again as U.S. oil production starts to plateau and demand continues to rise as we think it will over time. But there’s a ton of resources in the U.S. I’ve never been against this industry in terms of technology because you can always figure out a way to get more resource out of the rock.”