The Lumina Foundation, well-known for its national campaign to increase educational attainment, has set a new stretch goal for 2040. As part of an updated strategic framework, it will now focus on the economic returns associated with postsecondary credentials.
Announced Tuesday, Lumina wants 75% of working-age adults in the labor force to have either college degrees or what it calls other “credentials of value” that lead to economic prosperity. It has established a 15-year timespan to achieve the goal.
Those credentials of value will be defined, at least initially, in terms of a wage-premium — namely, the percentage of adults ages 25-64 who are in the labor force, have a college degree or other post-secondary credential, and have incomes at least 15% greater than the median annual earnings of a high-school graduate. Lumina indicated that it picked 15% as the standard after consulting with labor economists.
In 2008, Lumina, an independent private foundation in Indianapolis, issued a challenge termed the “Big Goal” that called for 60% of working-age adults nationwide to have earned a college degree or other high-quality postsecondary credential by 2025.
The past decade-and-a-half has seen solid progress in attainment, with the share of working-age Americans with degrees or other credentials beyond high school rising every year.
The percentage of adults in the U.S. ages 25-64 with college degrees, certificates or industry-recognized certifications has increased 17 percentage points from 2008 to 2023, from 38% to 55%, according to the latest version of A Stronger Nation, Lumina’s online, interactive tracking tool.
That figure represents a 3 percentage point increase over 2019’s level of 52%, and it’s the highest national level of postsecondary attainment since Lumina began gathering these data more than 15 years ago.
But now Lumina is shifting its emphasis. Rather than only measuring levels of educational attainment, it intends to sharpen its focus to concentrate on degrees and credentials that yield a demonstrable economic value. The shift is a response to several factors, including changing workforce demands, increasing doubts about the necessity and worth of a college degree, and growing concerns about whether college curricula are well-aligned with career requirements.
“Higher education should be a gateway to real opportunity for every aspiring student,” said Jamie Merisotis, Lumina’s president and CEO, in a news release. “We must take action to remove barriers so that more people—regardless of who they are or where they’re from—can earn degrees and credentials that empower them to continue to learn, create change in communities, and find meaningful livelihoods.”
To reach the 2040 goal, Lumina will prioritize four areas:
- Credentials of Value: Ensuring that postsecondary credentials provide meaningful career and economic benefits.
- Access: Expanding the opportunities for all individuals to participate in high-quality education and training.
- Student Success: Supporting efforts to help students complete their education in a timely manner.
- Redesign: Rethinking the structure, funding and governance of education and workforce systems to serve students better.
In a press briefing Monday, Merisotis said that Lumina would make investments in these four areas over the next five years, along with improving data collection to measure progress toward economic prosperity.
Lumina intends to continue working with its partners in higher education, government, business, and nonprofit organizations to help achieve the 2040 goal. It will give special attention to community colleges, regional public universities, and institutions serving working adults as well as first-generation-college students and those from low-income families and communities of color.
Lumina also will keep tracking progress toward the 60% goal, and it has expanded A Stronger Nation to identify the current baseline for the new, refined 75% benchmark. Based on the most recent data available from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey:
- 44.1% of working-age adults in the workforce currently meet the new “credential of value” threshold.
- Nevada has the lowest share of any state at 34.4%, Washington, D.C. has the highest at 70.4%.
- Of those working-age adults in the workforce with an associate’s degree, 54.7% make more than the national median salary/wage of a high school graduate, and 58% with a short-term credential do so.
- For those with a bachelor’s degree, 70.4% exceed the median high school graduate wage, and that increases to 80.7% of individuals with a graduate degree.
The Lumina Foundation’s focus on educational attainment helped drive a steady, much-needed increase in the number of Americans with post-secondary credentials over the past two decades. Now, it’s ready for a second act, with the potential for significant influence once again as it sets its sights on helping higher education become a more effective path to greater economic prosperity.