Much has been made of U.S. president Donald Trump’s move to muscle in a deal for minerals from Ukraine in exchange for continued support from Washington in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
The president himself has talked up the move and declared than an “agreement” is imminent. On Wednesday, Trump said he was expecting his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington to sign the deal this week. That’s after the two leaders exchanged barbs about each other, and the war, over a number of days.
But now, in return for an imminent deal, Trump said: “Ukraine would get the right to fight on.” So what exactly is it all about and why now.
What Minerals Does Ukraine Have?
Trump’s interest partially arises from the fact that the Ukrainians themselves have persistently flagged their mineral wealth, including mining areas they claim have been usurped by Russia.
According to Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s minister of economic development and trade, the country has the largest reserves of lithium, titanium and significant deposits of other minerals in Europe. Overall, her government claims that Ukraine holds 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials.”
Additional data provided by Ukraine also points to it holding 19 million tonnes of proven reserves of graphite and prior to Russia’s invasion in 2022, its global share of titanium production – which has a variety of uses in a number of sectors from construction to aerospace – was around 7%.
Furthermore, Ukraine claims to have significant deposits of rare earth metals widely used to produce wind turbines and electronics, alongside several other use cases. However, this claim has not been fully independently verified due to the ongoing conflict and Kiev’s assertions that some of its mineral deposits have been seized by Russia.
Why Now?
The given the centrality of rare earths and minerals to the global economy and the ongoing energy transition predicated on digitization and electrification of human mobility, it need not be surprising that the U.S. president craves access to Ukraine’s resources.
His desire to “buy” Greenland from Denmark displays his form when it comes to bidding for natural resources for the U.S. However, this particular development has as much to do with the Ukrainians themselves. In fact, the seeds of it were sown by Zelensky himself.
During the heat of the U.S. Presidential campaign, Zelensky met Trump last September and first included the offer of an agreement on minerals in an attempt to offer a tangible reason for a what was then a potential incoming administration to continue supporting Ukraine, a plausible “victory plan.”
In line with that conversation, Trump has simply revisited the idea with his customary aplomb upon entering the White House, and the Ukrainians are now attempting to meet him halfway at the very least.
Details Of A Potential Deal
Concrete details of a potential deal are awaited. Media reports suggest the Trump administration is no longer insisting on a right to $500 billion in potential revenue from Ukraine’s resources. But it has not given firm security guarantees to the Ukrainians either, something they desperately need.
A Ukrainian official told the BBC that talks had been “positive” so far. But there have been additional complications following an intervention by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.
On Tuesday, Putin said he was open to offering the U.S. access to the very same minerals the Ukrainians were offering in much larger volumes, noting that Russia had “significantly more resources of this kind than Ukraine.”
The situation remains fluid and still has some way to go yet. But minerals or no minerals, what’s not in dispute is that Trump has changed the rules of engagement with Ukraine – as he promised during his presidential campaign.